Russia Begins Military Drills In Belarus Amid Border Tensions With Ukraine

Topline

Russia and Belarus began their planned 10-day long joint military drills across Ukraine’s northern border on Thursday, a move that was denounced as “psychological pressure” by Kyiv as several diplomats met in Moscow and Berlin to avert a possible invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces.

Key Facts

The drill are part of Russia’s so-called “Union Resolve” exercise with its close ally Belarus, which Moscow claims is to examine the readiness of its forces “suppressing and repelling external aggression,” and countering terrorism.

The exercises are taking place on Belarusian soil, which NATO officials have warned may be a cover for a possible invasion of Ukraine from the north.

France called the drills a “violent gesture” while NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg noted that this massive deployment by Moscow was a “dangerous moment for European security.”

U.K. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss who met her Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov on Thursday reiterated previous warnings from the west that an invasion of Ukraine will “have massive consequences and carry severe costs.”

Lavrov dismissed Truss’ warning noting that “ideological approaches, ultimatums and moralizing” won’t move discussions forward.

Foreign policy advisers from Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine who met in Paris last month will once again meet Berlin later on Thursday in an attempt to get all sides to agree on the 2015 peace deal known as the Minsk Protocol.

Crucial Quote

Speaking to reporters at the headquarters of NATO in Brussels U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said he doesn’t think Moscow has taken a decision yet on invading Ukraine. “That doesn’t mean that it is impossible that something absolutely disastrous could happen very soon indeed. And our intelligence, I’m afraid to say, remains grim. This is probably the most dangerous moment, I would say, in the course of the next few days, in what is the biggest security crisis that Europe has faced for decades.”

Big Number

30,000. That’s the total number of Russia troops that are believed to be taking part in the exercise, according to NATO. Russia has not disclosed the actual number.

Key Background

Earlier this week, U.S. officials warned that Russia has already amassed 70% of the military presence it needs to launch a full scale invasion of Ukraine. Following this U.S. President Joe Biden vowed that Washington will “bring an end to” the $11 billion Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline that connects Russia to Germany if an invasion of Ukraine takes place. A potential cancellation of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline would be a major blow to the Russian economy which is heavily reliant on the export of fossil fuels. Additionally, the White House has warned of severe economic sanctions against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “inner circle” in the event of an invasion.

Further Reading

Diplomats meet in Moscow and Berlin as Russian drills held (Associated Press)

Russia begins military drills with Belarus (BBC News)