While earlier funding and capacity expansion were positive signs for Rivian’s (NASDAQ: RIVN) future, many uncertainties could still affect the company’s stock price in 2025 and beyond.
Shares of Rivian closed down over 14% (−$2.49) on Tuesday, March 7, to close the market at $14.64, as the EV-maker announced plans for a “green” debt offering. Recent stock volatility at Rivian may be a sign of things to come if the firm doesn’t show signs of production growth and cash preservation strategies soon.
Rivian plans to offer $1.3 billion in “green” convertible senior notes due in 2029, with an option to issue an additional $200 million to the initial buyers. In keeping with its mission, Rivian plans to invest the funds it earns in environmentally positive projects.
“Rivian intends to use the net proceeds from the offering to finance, refinance, make direct investments in, in whole or in part, one or more new or recently completed… current and/or future eligible green projects,” the company said in a statement.
RIVN technical analysis
RIVN’s technical indicators on TradingView‘s one-day gauges are extremely bearish, with the summary aligning with a ‘strong sell’ sentiment at 16 while moving averages are for a ‘strong sell’ at 14. Meanwhile, oscillators are pointing at ‘sell’ with 2.
Yet, Wall Street analysts have given the EV startup a consensus ‘buy’ rating from 22 analysts based on its performance over the past three months. In total, 12 experts advocate for a ‘strong buy’ and 2 for a ‘buy.’ A further 6 analysts opt to hold, and 2 opt to ‘sell.’
The average price forecast for the next year is $29.05; the target indicates a 98.45% upside from its current price, while the highest price target over the next year is $50 +241.53% from its current price.
Looking to 2025 and beyond
Late on March 6, Rivian announced that it would be selling convertible notes (bonds that may be repaid in cash, shares, or a combination of the two) to raise funds for the production and distribution of its future R2 series of compact vehicles. This rollout is currently scheduled for 2026 and could have a positive impact on its price in 2025.
After the initial $1.3 billion, the institutional investors buying the notes will have the opportunity to acquire up to an additional $200 million in notes. Rivian and its stockholders face benefits and drawbacks when dealing with convertible debt. It bears interest rates typically lower than those of ordinary bonds, which could help Rivian save significant funds immediately by reducing its debt management expenditure.
Bonds issued by Rivian should attract buyers since they meet the criteria for “green” bonds, which attract investors who want to support businesses that are less harmful to the environment. Yet, convertibles may dilute owners if the stock price increases since bondholders would likely convert their bonds into new shares at lower prices.
It makes far less sense for Rivian to issue convertible debt with the stock price at an all-time low of $17 per share than it would have made for the company to do so as recently as November when the stock traded at double that price. The fact that Rivian had to resort to seeking funds at such an inopportune moment is evidence that it has not been able to live up to the enormous expectations placed on it so far.
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Source: https://finbold.com/overview-rivian-rivn-stock-price-prediction-for-2025/