Republican J.D. Vance Defeats Democrat Tim Ryan In Key Midterm Contest

Topline

Republican J.D. Vance has won Ohio’s Senate race, edging out Rep. Tim Ryan (D), after a tight contest where Vance’s celebrity status and alignment with former President Donald Trump aided his campaign as Ryan—a 10-term member of Congress—tried to distance himself from establishment Democrats and appeal to Republicans.

Key Facts

The Associated Press called the race for Vance at 11:19 p.m. Eastern, as Vance led Ryan 53.6% to 46.4%—a roughly 282,000-vote margin—with about 92% of total votes counted.

Vance, a Yale-educated lawyer and venture capitalist, rose to political prominence with his 2016 memoir “Hillbilly Elegy,” which chronicled the social, economic and cultural effects of manufacturing’s decline in the southern Ohio town where he grew up—a story many Ohioans identified with.

Ryan, who became the youngest Democrat in Congress when he was elected to the House in 2003, announced he would run to replace retiring Republican Sen. Rob Portman as Ohio lost a congressional seat in redistricting.

Vance surged in the polls in the final two weeks before Election Day, gaining more than six points to finish 6.2 points ahead of Ryan as of Monday, according to FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker, which showed a tie race just three weeks ago.

Key Background

Throughout the campaign, Vance and Ryan both sought to align the other with the poles of their parties. In an effort to appeal to voters who tied economic concerns to Democrats, Vance claimed Ryan voted with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and President Joe Biden “100% of the time,” and frequently highlighted Ryan’s series of “I do love Nancy Pelosi” statements in 2016 (though most were made as he explained in TV interviews why he was challenging her for House speaker). Ryan, meanwhile, cast Vance as an election denier and “ass kisser” who would “follow the herd and follow extremists” to appease the party’s right-wing, while walking a fine line not to insult Republican voters in a state that backed Trump by eight points in 2020. Ryan made a concerted effort to court GOP voters with the help of Portman’s former chief of staff, John M. Bridgeland, and former Republican Rep. David Hobson, who ran his “Republicans for Ryan” voter outreach initiative.

Tangent

Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R) also won reelection, leading Democratic nominee Nan Whaley 63% to 37% with 92% of votes counted, according to the AP. Meanwhile, incumbent Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) defeated Republican challenger J.R. Majewski in Ohio’s competitive Ninth District.