The AUD remains something of a laggard among G10 currencies so far this year. Economists at Scotiabank analyze Aussie’s outlook.
RBA tightening cycle may have peaked at 4.10%
The RBA tightening cycle may have peaked at 4.10%, with policymakers perhaps concerned that the passthrough of higher mortgage rates will slow the domestic economy.
Soft regional growth trends (China) and a weak Yuan have weighed on the AUD sentiment and speculative positioning has been persistently bearish in recent months.
Meaningful China stimulus would be a major plus for the AUD but, in the absence of more positive drivers, reaching our 0.69 year-end target will be a challenge.
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-reaching-the-069-year-end-target-will-be-a-challenge-scotiabank-202309151305