RBA to begin easing in November, RBNZ to hike 25 bps at next week’s meeting – TDS

Economists at TD Securities revise its RBA and RBNZ cash rate calls.

RBNZ’s eventual easing cycle is likely to be more aggressive

RBA: We still expect 100 bps of cuts in the easing cycle, but forecast the first 25 bps cut to be delivered in Nov’24 vs. our prior call for Aug’24.

RBNZ: We now forecast hikes at next week’s meeting – 25 bps – and in May to take the OCR to 6%. Consequently, the eventual easing cycle is likely to be more aggressive with 200 bps of cuts.