Queen Elizabeth And Justin Bieber Both Tested Positive For Covid. Her Risk Is Roughly 340 Times Greater.

Topline

Queen Elizabeth II of England, 95, tested positive for Covid-19 Sunday, Buckingham Palace announced Sunday, and while her prognosis remains much better because of the development of vaccines (the queen has received at least one dose) and effective covid treatments, her advanced age puts her at particular risk.

Key Facts

The queen has “mild coldlike symptoms but expects to continue light duties at Windsor over the coming week,” Buckingham Palace said in a statement to the New York Times and BBC.

Elizabeth’s eldest son Charles, 73, tested positive for Covid-19 on February 10, and reportedly came into contact with the queen just before his diagnosis.

The queen received one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine in January 2021, and she is believed to have had her follow-up shot and booster dose since then, according to the BBC. 

According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, people ages 85 and older are 340 times more likely to die from Covid-19-related complications than people ages 18-29, though various factors can shift a given person’s level of risk.

If the queen is indeed up to date on her Covid-19 vaccines, her chances of recovery are much more promising: a recent study out of Israel found just 60 of more than 470,000 participants ages 65 and older who had received a Covid-19 booster shot eventually died from covid, though the study did not report data specifically for individuals in the queen’s advanced age group.

Big Number

340. That’s roughly how many times more lethal a covid infection could be for someone of Queen Elizabeth’s age group,, according to the CDC, than someone like pop superstar Justin Bieber, 27, who it was also reported Sunday also tested positive for covid. And it could be much more than that: QCovid, the British Medical Journal’s online calculator of Covid risks that pulls from medical data from British residents, estimates a 95-year-old, Covid-19-vaccinated woman’s risk of death after testing positive would be 1.8%. Assuming Bieber is vaccinated (his tour requires proof of vaccination for entry), someone his age and sex would face just a .004 % chance of death, making the queen’s risk 450 times greater.

Crucial Quote

 “I’m sure I speak for everyone in wishing Her Majesty The Queen a swift recovery from Covid and a rapid return to vibrant good health,” British Prime Minister Boris Johnson tweeted Sunday morning. Johnson is expected to announce plans to end many Covid-19 restrictions in England on Monday, according to the Associated Press.

Tangent

The risk of death from Covid-19 was greater for people ages 85 and older before the creation of Covid-19 vaccines and the advancements of antiviral treatments. A study published in the Journal of the American Geriatrics Society in October 2020 that drew from 76 Covid-19 patients ages 85 and older (a small sample size) found that 7 out of the 42 women in the study died (16.7%), though this figure was lower than the male rate (15 out of 34, 44%). Men continue to be the more vulnerable gender today—QCovid’s calculator doubles the risk of death from Covid-19 for a 95-year-old male compared to a female of the same age, up to 3.6% compared to 1.8%.

Surprising Fact

Following the statement release of the queen’s positive test, she sent out a congratulations letter to the British women’s and men’s curling teams, who earned gold and silver medals respectively at the Beijing Olympics in recent days. The BBC theorized this release was meant to send a “business-as-usual” emphasis following her diagnosis.

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