Putin’s ‘Under Pressure’ Commanders Will Push Unprepared Forces To Donbas, U.K. Defense Ministry Says

Topline

Russia will likely hastily redeploy forces from Mariupol to Donbas without time for “adequate preparation” once it has secured the city, the U.K.’s defense ministry said on Friday, as Moscow’s losses mount and commanders face growing pressure to make meaningful gains in Ukraine.

Key Facts

Once Russia has secured Mariupol, it will likely redistribute forces there to “reinforce operations in the Donbas,” the U.K. defense ministry said in an intelligence update.

“Staunch” resistance in Mariupol, a strategically important port city on Ukraine’s Black Sea coastline, has hampered Russian progress for nearly three months and its forces must be “re-equipped and refurbished before they can be redeployed effectively,” the ministry said.

“This can be a lengthy process when done thoroughly,” the briefing added.

However, Russian forces are likely to be redeployed “swiftly” and “without adequate preparation” due to the intense “pressure” on Putin’s commanders to show tangible progress in Ukraine, risking further military losses, the ministry said.

Big Number

1,700. That’s how many Ukrainian soldiers are likely to have surrendered at the Azovstal steel plant, the ministry said. The plant was Ukraine’s last bastion of resistance in Mariupol after the rest of the city was reduced to ruins following months of Russian bombing. Ukrainian fighters, who surrendered on Monday, had been holed up in a sprawling network of tunnels and shelters under the steelworks for weeks after Russia claimed control of the rest of Mariupol. “An unknown number of Ukrainian forces remain inside the factory,” the British ministry said.

Key Background

Capturing Mariupol has been a critical objective for Russia during its invasion. The city is strategically located on the Sea of Azov and an important economic center and trading hub for Ukraine. Crucially, control over Mariupol is key to creating an unobstructed land bridge between Russia and Crimea, which Moscow illegally annexed in 2014, and a huge propaganda win for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Its resistance, particularly the siege at the steel factory, has prevented Russia from deploying troops to its new focus in Donbas.

What To Watch For

The fate of the Azovstal fighters. It’s uncertain what will happen to the surrendered steelworks fighters. Some—nearly 1,000—have been taken to a prison colony in Russian-controlled territory. Kyiv is calling for a prisoner exchange to have the soldiers swapped for Russian prisoners of war. Signals from Moscow, however, suggest Russia may put the fighters on trial for “war crimes.”

Further Reading

Ukraine Effectively Surrenders Mariupol—Here’s Why The City Is Such A Prized Target For Russia (Forbes)

Inside the Azovstal steelworks: The sprawling underground city standing between Vladimir Putin and the fall of Mariupol (Telegraph)