Pentagon Says Ukrainians Will ‘Suffer Immensely’ If Russia Invades

Topline

Russia has now staged enough troops near Ukraine to devastate Ukrainian civilians and cause significant casualties if it chooses to invade, Pentagon officials said Friday, as Russia reportedly took further steps to prepare for a potential incursion — though Russian officials have denied planning an invasion.

Key Facts

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin told reporters Friday he doesn’t believe Russian President Vladimir Putin has made up his mind on whether to invade Ukraine yet, but he’s moved enough troops into the region to give him a “range of options.”

Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Friday that “if war were to break out on a scale and scope that is possible, the civilian population will suffer immensely,” citing the potential for heavy casualties in major Ukrainian cities.

More than 100,000 Russian troops are now staged near Ukraine, including ground personnel, air and naval forces, logistical resources and others, according to Milley.

Russia’s latest preparations have included moving medical units and blood supplies to the Ukrainian border, defense officials told the Wall Street Journal and Reuters, indicating the country is putting in place the necessary elements for a full invasion — though these steps don’t necessarily mean an invasion of Ukraine is inevitable.

The Russian government has denied that it wants to invade Ukraine, and when it first began building up troops near the Ukrainian border last year, Putin’s spokesperson framed the actions as internal troop movements of little consequence to other countries.

What To Watch For

If Russia chooses to invade Ukraine, U.S. officials reportedly think the operation will likely begin over the winter, as it’s easier to move equipment over frozen soil than mud. U.S. President Joe Biden told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy this week there’s a “distinct possibility” Russia could invade next month, the White House told reporters. 

Key Background

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine — two former Soviet republics — are now more heated than at any other point since 2014, when Russia invaded and annexed Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula and aided a still-brewing separatist conflict in the country’s Russian-speaking east. Experts say Russia is seeking to prevent Ukraine — a country with which it shares a long border and longstanding historical and cultural ties — from drifting toward the West’s orbit. Ukraine ousted a pro-Russia president in 2014, and it has expressed an interest in joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) for more than a decade.

What We Don’t Know

In recent weeks, Russian, U.S. and European officials have looked for a diplomatic solution to the recent troop buildup near Ukraine, but it’s unclear whether this frenzied effort will succeed. Putin wants NATO to promise to never admit Ukraine and reduce its military presence in other Eastern European member states that were previously part of Moscow’s orbit. The United States and NATO have cast these demands as nonstarters, leading Putin to accuse Western countries of disregarding his security concerns.

Tangent

The Biden Administration has threatened a range of broad economic sanctions if Russia invades, though experts say Russia has worked in recent years to soften the blow of possible Western penalties by shoring up its foreign currency reserves. Coordinating any financial sanctions with European countries like Germany — which imports large amounts of natural gas from Russia — could also prove challenging. Meanwhile, the United States has shipped more military supplies to Ukraine this month, and the Pentagon put up to 8,500 U.S. troops on alert this week for possible deployment to Eastern Europe, though Biden said Tuesday he doesn’t intend to send U.S. combat troops to Ukraine.

Contra

Ukrainian officials have taken a slightly different approach, urging Western diplomats to avoid publicly stirring panic. Zelenskyy said at a Friday press conference that “there are no tanks in the streets,” and claimed tensions aren’t necessarily higher now than during a previous Russian military buildup last spring, according to Reuters.

Further Reading

Here’s What To Know About The Russia Talks So Far—And What To Watch For Next (Forbes)

Ukrainian official tells CNN Biden’s call with Ukrainian President ‘did not go well’ but White House disputes account (CNN)