Over 10,000 Mariupol Residents Have Died, Mayor Says—And Death Toll Could Double

Topline

Over 10,000 civilians have been killed in the southeastern Ukrainian city of Mariupol, a number that could eventually double, the city’s mayor told the Associated Press on Monday, as Russian forces close in on the key city ahead of a larger offensive in eastern Ukraine.

Key Facts

If Mayor Vadym Boychenko’s dire predictions prove accurate and Mariupol’s death toll reaches 20,000, it would amount to almost 5% of the coastal city’s pre-war population of over 400,000.

Similarly, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said during a speech to South Korean politicians earlier Monday that tens of thousands of Mariupol residents had died.

Key Background

A port city on the Sea of Azov, Mariupol has faced some of the invasion’s most intense fighting. Russian forces have pummeled Mariupol with destructive artillery and rocket attacks, at one point reportedly bombing a theater that hundreds of residents used as a shelter, and basic supplies have run low due to a weeks-long siege. Thousands of residents have fled Mariupol, but many have struggled to leave the city, and while Ukrainian defenders have fought back, Russian troops are slowly gaining territory. Capturing Mariupol is likely a key priority for Russia. The city could form part of a land bridge connecting Russia’s mainland with the Russian-annexed Crimean Peninsula, and it lies within eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region, which borders Russia and has been partially controlled by pro-Russian separatists since 2014. Ukrainian and Western officials think the Russian military will soon turn its focus to attempting to capture wide swaths of Donetsk and the neighboring Luhansk region, after an offensive targeting the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv failed to make progress.

What We Don’t Know

The precise death toll. The United Nations says it had confirmed 1,842 civilian deaths throughout Ukraine as of Sunday, but the international organization acknowledged “the actual figures are considerably higher.” Both Russian and Ukrainian officials have released estimated civilian and military death counts, but few have been corroborated.