October Auto Sales Rise With More Inventory, But Cupboard Is Still Pretty Bare

With slightly better availability of new cars and trucks — compared with super-low availability a year ago — U.S. auto sales in October are expected to increase in double digits percentage-wise, vs. October 2021, forecasters said.

TrueCar Inc. predicts October sales of about 1.2 million cars and trucks combined, an increase of about 15% vs. a year ago. Separately, J.D. Power and LMC Automotive published a forecast that also rounds up to 1.2 million, up 15%. Both forecasts are based on partial results for the early part of October.

The year-ago month is an easy comparison, considering new-vehicle stocks were so low at the time, forecasters said. New-vehicle inventory has been extraordinarily low since factory shutdowns in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by an ongoing shortage of computer chips.

Some of the nation’s biggest auto dealership chains reported new-car availability has improved, but not by much.

“We remain at historically low days-supply,” said Michael Manley, CEO of dealership chain AutoNation Inc., in a conference call on Oct. 27, to announce third-quarter earnings.

AutoNation, Fort Lauderdale, Fla., reported it had a 15-day supply of new cars and trucks as of Sept. 30, up from only 10 days a year ago.

Days-supply is an estimate of how long dealership inventory would last, at the present sales rate, if it were not replenished before stocks ran out.

As of Dec. 31, 2021, AutoNation said it had only a 9-day supply of new vehicles. Before the pandemic, the U.S. auto industry considered a 60-day supply to be the informal benchmark.

Separately, Asbury Automotive Group, Duluth, Ga., said in an earnings call Oct. 27 that it had a 19-day supply of new cars and trucks as of Sept. 30, up from 12 days a year earlier.

However, new-vehicle inventory is still low, said Dan Clara, Asbury senior vice president of operations. He said, “We anticipate new inventory levels to remain low throughout the year.”