Netanyahu On Track To Return As Israel’s Prime Minister, Exit Polls Suggest

Topline

Longtime former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is on the verge of a political comeback, according to exit polls that show his right-wing coalition leading in Tuesday’s legislative elections, less than a year-and-a-half after he was ousted from office.

Key Facts

Polling suggests parties in Netanyahu’s coalition will win 61 or 62 of the 120 seats in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, according to multiple reports, citing Israeli television.

At least 30 of those seats would belong to Netanyahu’s Likud party, which could join with other groups—including the ultranationalist Religious Zionism party—to form a government.

The exit polls do not represent actual results, but they suggest Prime Minister Yair Lapid may have a difficult time keeping his center-left coalition in power.

Contra

Early results indicate a small Arab nationalist party may secure enough votes to capture four seats in the Knesset, which would eliminate Netanyahu’s projected win, according to the Associated Press.

Crucial Quote

“We’re alive and kicking, possibly before a great victory, but we have to wait until the morning,” Netanyahu told supporters Tuesday evening, according to AP.

Key Background

Netanyahu left office in 2021 and was succeeded by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, after a group of political parties across the political spectrum—including Lapid’s center-left party, Bennett’s right-wing party and a small Arab party—formed a broad coalition driven primarily by opposition to Netanyahu. That coalition was unstable and fell apart earlier this year, prompting another round of elections. Netanyahu’s comeback bid was the focal point of the election—the fifth in Israel in the last three-and-a-half years—as the former prime minister promised a stable government after years of political turmoil. But Netanyahu has been plagued with allegations of corruption and a history of making racially charged statements degrading the country’s Arab minority. He is set to face a corruption trial for several charges, including bribery, but far-right leaders have demanded the trial be called off. Itamar Ben-Gvir, the leader of the Religious Zionism party, has vowed to change the legal code to clear Netanyahu if the right-wing coalition wins. Ben-Gvir, whom critics deride as a Jewish supremacist, has called for the deportation of Arabs he believes are not loyal to the Israeli government.

Tangent

Netanyahu, 73, served earlier stints as prime minister from 1996 to 1999 and from 2009 to 2021, working with four American presidents. He was known for having an often-tense relationship with former President Barack Obama and a particularly close relationship with former President Donald Trump, which soured after Netanyahu recognized President Joe Biden as the winner of the 2020 presidential election. “F—- him,” Trump told Axios last year.

Further Reading

Exit polls point to Netanyahu win in Israeli election (Associated Press)

Trump blasts Netanyahu for disloyalty: “F**k him” (Axios)