James Harden’s Foot Strain Will Force Sixers To Adapt For Next Month

The Philadelphia 76ers suffered not one but two losses on Wednesday night. Not only did they lose to the Washington Wizards, 121-111, but star guard James Harden suffered a right foot tendon strain and is expected to miss the next month, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski.

Harden leads the Sixers with 10.0 assists per game this season—Tyrese Maxey is the next-closest at 3.4—and he has the second-highest usage rate on the team, trailing only Joel Embiid. Seeing as six of the Sixers’ next seven opponents are currently .500 or above, Harden’s absence comes at a particularly inopportune time.

The one silver lining is that it’ll force the Sixers to temporarily adapt to life without him, which could pay dividends for them down the line in the playoffs.

The Sixers have largely been relying on Harden as their primary half-court creator. He’s averaging 93.0 touches per game, nearly 14 more than Maxey and almost 28 more than Embiid, and his time of possession (8.9) dwarfs that of the next-closest player on the team (Maxey at 5.3).

On a related note, the Sixers are currently running at the second-slowest pace of any team leaguewide. They’re averaging only 95.61 possessions per 48 minutes, ahead of only the similarly heliocentric Dallas Mavericks.

It’s no coincidence that three of Maxey’s four biggest scoring outings of the young season have come with Embiid out. The offense tends to slow to a crawl whenever Embiid or Harden are on the floor, but Maxey can push the pace more frequently when both of them are on the bench.

Throughout the remainder of the regular season, the Sixers need to figure out how best to maximize Maxey when Embiid and Harden are both healthy. Harden’s foot injury will deprive them the chance to do that for the next month. However, Harden’s absence should allow Maxey and Embiid to work more on their two-man chemistry, particularly as pick-and-roll partners.

Maxey is nowhere near the passer that Harden is, but he’s arguably just as lethal—if not more so—as a three-level scorer. Whereas Harden no longer gets to the rim like he did in his prime, Maxey’s speed enables him to blow by slower-footed defenders. He’s also shooting a preposterous 46.8 percent from three-point range on a career-high 6.9 attempts per game, and he’s 9-of-18 on his mid-range attempts thus far.

If the Sixers can stay afloat in the minutes with Maxey on the floor and Embiid off, head coach Doc Rivers decide to change up his rotation patterns upon Harden’s return. Rather than staggering Embiid with Maxey and Harden with Tobias Harris, he could run a slower, half-court-oriented unit with Embiid and Harden and a run-and-gun lineup with Maxey and Harris flanked by shooters.

The Sixers will sorely miss Harden’s passing until he returns, though. Prior to his arrival last year, Maxey led the team with 4.6 assists per game, while Embiid (4.5) and Harris (3.7) weren’t far behind. Harden is by far the best entry passer on the team, which helped create plenty of easy looks around the rim for Embiid, too.

Rather than running their half-court offense through Harden and relying on him to create shot attempts for his teammates, the Sixers will now have to pivot back to a more egalitarian offense in which Embiid, Maxey and Harris will all share creation duties in the starting lineup. While they figure to go back to a Harden-centric offense upon his return, getting more regular-season reps without him could help them find their best non-Harden lineups ahead of the playoffs.

Until Harden returns, De’Anthony Melton will likely slide into the starting lineup as his temporary replacement. Melton has started two of the three games that Embiid missed, and he likely would have started in Wednesday’s loss to the Wizards had he not missed the game with low back stiffness.

Melton is nowhere near the scorer nor the passer that Harden is, but he’s gotten into a groove on both ends of the floor after a slow start to the season. The Maxey-Harden backcourt can be a defensive liability at times, but Melton can now take on the toughest perimeter assignment each night. He’s also knocking down 40.7 percent of his three-point attempts and averaging 2.3 assists in only 22.5 minutes per game. He’ll be a two-way glue guy who doesn’t take away many touches from Embiid, Maxey or Harris.

The Sixers need to experiment more with three-guard lineups featuring Maxey, Harden and Melton, as they’ve shown major promise early in the season. Those groups have a sizzling net rating of plus-16.6, albeit in only 56 minutes. (Small-sample-size alert!)

Harden’s absence will prevent them from trying out that exact group for the next month, but it will give them a chance to figure out how to optimize Maxey-Melton lineups. The Sixers have a horrific net rating of minus-23.6 in 54 minutes with those two on the floor and Harden off.

Harden’s foot injury is an undeniable blow to a Sixers team that’s already off to an underwhelming start. While their schedule does soften up a bit toward the end of the month—they have one road game against the Charlotte Hornets and two against the Orlando Magic right around Thanksgiving—they may be well below .500 by then.

They’ll just have to make the best use of these Harden-less games in terms of playoff preparation, even if they do dig themselves into an early regular-season hole without him.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.