Inflation Might Be Cooling But Thanksgiving Dinner Prices Are Still Red-Hot

Topline

The cost of a Thanksgiving meal will be the highest ever this November, according to American Farm Bureau’s annual survey, an unfortunate reminder of the inflation headache that Americans, investors and policymakers alike are anything but thankful for—even as inflation growth has begun to slow.

Key Facts

The average cost nationwide for a 10-person Thanksgiving feast is $64.05, the American Farm Bureau’s calculations found.

The survey measures the price of 12 Thanksgiving staples like whole turkeys, boxed stuffing and pumpkin pie filling fit to feed 10 people, using 224 shopper data reports across the country.

Turkey is by far the largest driver of the increase, with the American Farm Bureau estimating the average cost of a 16-pound turkey rose 21%, or nearly $5, to $28.96, while all goods except for cranberries also climbed in price.

The average price for a box of stuffing is up 69% from a year ago to $3.88, while pie crusts rose 26% and dinner rolls are 22% more expensive, commensurate with the surging cost of wheat driving up the price of bread products globally.

Thanksgiving prices are highly regional: The average cost of Thanksgiving dinner is $58.42 in the South compared to $71.37 in the West, according to the survey, a more than 20% difference, while prices in the Northeast ($64.02) and Midwest ($64.26) are between the two extremes.

Key Background

Inflation began to climb last year due to a variety of mostly pandemic-related factors, including supply chain disruptions and an influx of government stimulus. Food prices, especially meat, were particularly impacted by factory closures due to Covid-19 and supply chain bottlenecks. The average cost of meat, poultry, fish and egg products rose 8% last month compared to October 2021, according to the latest Labor Department data, and is up a whopping 28% compared to October 2019, the last pre-Covid autumn. Inflation has hovered at its highest level since the early 1980s for much of 2022, causing the Federal Reserve to pursue its most aggressive increases to the federal funds rate since that era. The Fed’s strategy, which increases borrowing costs to effectively slow spending, send the economy on the brink or into a recession and thus rein in prices, showed its first fruits earlier this month when consumer prices rose at its slowest monthly pace since January.

Surprising Fact

A wave of avian flu has killed millions of turkeys this year, greatly decreasing the supply of Thanksgiving bird and contributing to the elevated prices. The total number of turkeys slaughtered for consumption year-to-date is down 4% compared to the same period last year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Further Reading

It’s Not Just Inflation: Avian Flu Will Pump Up Prices Of Thanksgiving Turkeys (Forbes)

No Thanks: Average Cost For Thanksgiving Dinner Hits All-Time High (Forbes)