How The Israel-Hamas War Could Cost Biden Votes—Especially With This Key Demographic

Topline

President Joe Biden’s strong support for Israel could turn away younger voters who have already soured on the president, even though most Democrats back Biden’s approach to the Israel-Hamas conflict, surveys indicate, as Biden was hit with bleak polling figures this week that show him trailing former President Donald Trump in five of six battleground states.

U.S. President Joe Biden returns to the White House on November 06, 2023 in Washington, DC. (Photo … [+] by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

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Key Facts

Voters under 30 (who voted for Biden by a 24-point margin in 2020) favor the president over Trump by only a single percentage point, according to a Sunday New York Times/Siena poll of voters in six battleground states.

While negative views of the economy that transcend demographics could be driving Biden’s decline in support, polls indicate Biden’s approach to the Israel-Hamas war could also be deterring younger voters, who are more likely to disapprove of his pro-Israel stance than voters in any other age bracket.

Some 57% of voters under 45 disapprove of Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war, versus 41% who approve of his stance, according to an NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist poll taken last month.

By comparison, voters ages 45 and up are evenly divided, with 47% supporting Biden’s approach to Israel and 47% opposed, and Biden’s approval on Israel stands at 77% among Democrats and 16% among Republicans, the Marist poll found.

According to a Quinnipiac University poll taken October 12-16, after Hamas’ October 7 invasion of Israel, the majority of voters ages 18-34 disapprove of the U.S. sending weapons and military aid to Israel, while the majority of voters ages 35 and up approve.

Some 48% of voters under the age of 45 think the U.S. should take a publicly pro-Israel stance, compared to 78% of voters ages 45 and older, 69% of Democrats and 77% of Republicans, according to the NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist poll.

Surprising Fact

It’s not just younger voters who could be deterred from backing Biden by his policies related to the Israel-Hamas war. Gallup found in March that Democrats across all age brackets surveyed more are sympathetic toward Palestinians than Israelis for the first time since 2001, while an October University of Maryland/Ipsos poll found 25% of Democrats believe the Biden administration’s policies toward the conflict are too pro-Israeli, compared to 1% who said they were too pro-Palestinian.

Chief Critic

“We write to you to issue a very stark and unmistakable warning: you and your Administration’s stance on Gaza risks millions of young voters staying home or voting third party next year,” the leaders of 10 Millennial and Gen Z voter outreach groups wrote in an open letter to Biden on Tuesday.

Contra

Biden’s standing in a hypothetical matchup with Trump has largely remained stagnant since Hamas’ invasion of Israel on October 7, when Trump led by just one point, according to RealClearPolitics’ polling average. Biden’s support has since dipped about one-tenth of a percentage point. Voters are typically far more likely to cite the economy as their top issue than any other priority, including foreign affairs.

Big Number

17%. That’s the share of Arab Americans who said they will vote for Biden in a recent Arab American Institute poll of 500 people conducted between October 23 and 27 by John Zogby Strategies. The findings represent a 42-point decline in support for Biden since 2020.

Key Background

The Israeli-Hamas conflict has exposed divisions among Democrats, as a small but vocal coalition of progressives in Congress have called on Biden to back a cease-fire. Biden has said he supports a “humanitarian pause” in Israeli military operations in Gaza in exchange for the release of hostages held by Hamas but has dismissed calls for a permanent cease-fire, citing the need for Hamas to be eliminated. Biden has also urged Congress to approve additional military aid for Israel in recent weeks. Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), the only Palestinian American in Congress and perhaps the most outspoken left-wing lawmaker, has drawn criticism for some of her rhetoric, including tweeting a video Friday that blamed Biden for the “genocide” of Palestinians and a statement calling Israel an “apartheid government.” Other progressives, including Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) have endorsed Biden’s call for a pause rather than a permanent cease-fire, while also urging Israel to retool its military strategy to continue targeting Hamas, but spare civilian lives. The Palestinian death toll in the conflict has surpassed 10,000, according to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry, while 1,400 Israelis have died, most in the October 7 attack on southern Israel.