Here’s How Many Hurricanes Federal Forecasters Expect This Year

Topline

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday projected 12 to 17 named tropical storms and hurricanes this year, a roughly average storm season that puts it on pace to reach last year’s total, though as of this week there are no tropical storms in sight.

Key Facts

NOAA projects between five and nine tropical storms will develop into hurricanes (with sustained winds of at least 74 mph), and one to four of those will become major hurricanes, breaking the 111 mph threshold to become a Category 3 hurricane.

That puts it in the ballpark of last year’s total of 14 named tropical storms, though nine of them developed into hurricanes, including two major ones: Hurricane Bonnie over Nicaragua and Costa Rica, and Hurricane Ian—Florida’s deadliest hurricane since 1935.

The Atlantic averages 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major ones by the end of the hurricane season, according to National Hurricane Center data from 1991-2020—NOAA estimates there’s a 40% chance of a near-normal hurricane season, and a 30% chance of an above-normal one.

The likelihood of a near-normal season is driven by a confluence of weather phenomena: Forecasters suggest it’s likely the U.S. is in for El Niño, which brings hotter weather to much of the U.S. but can suppress hurricane activity.

However, El Niño could be offset by favorable conditions for hurricanes in the Atlantic, including warm sea temperatures and an above-normal risk of an African monsoon that can produce strong easterly waves and trigger a strong Atlantic storm season, according to NOAA’s projection.

Key Background

The 2022 hurricane season got off to an eerily quiet start, a welcome surprise after Colorado State University meteorologists predicted the hurricane season to be one of the worst on record, with up to 19 named storms and four major hurricanes. From July 3 to September 2, there were no named storms, a three-month lull that ended when Tropical Storm Danielle intensified into a hurricane and quickly fizzled out in a remote area of the North Atlantic, nearly 1,000 miles west of the Azores. The quiet start to the season changed suddenly on September 28, when Hurricane Ian made landfall on Florida’s Gulf Coast as a near-Category 5 storm, bringing severe flooding and power outages and forcing residents throughout central Florida to evacuate, with maximum sustained winds around 150 mph. The hurricane, Florida’s deadliest in nearly 90 years, also caused more than $112.9 billion in damage in the U.S., according to a National Hurricane Center report, making it the third most expensive hurricane in the U.S. on record.

What To Watch For

The hurricane season officially starts June 1 and lasts through November 30, though tropical storms and hurricanes have formed in the month of May. The earliest on record was Hurricane Able, which formed on May 15, 1951. As of Thursday, however, the National Hurricane Center is not monitoring any tropical disturbances in the Atlantic.

Tangent

Guam was struck by a powerful typhoon this week, with the eyewall of Typhoon Mawar bringing 150 mph winds to the U.S. territory in the western Pacific, and causing widespread power outages. Mawar—the strongest typhoon to pass Guam in more than 20 years—brought as much as 24 inches of rain to the island in a 24 hour period, according to the U.S. Geological Survey, and is forecast to pass Guam on Friday.

Surprising Fact

The first 24 named storms this year will be Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harold, Idalia, Jose, Katia, Lee, Margot, Nigel, Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince and Whitney.

Further Reading

See The Damage: Hurricane Ian Causes Catastrophic Flooding In Florida (Forbes)