Greenhouse Gas Emissions Will Rise 10% When They Urgently Need To Drop, U.N. Warns

Topline

Global temperatures will increase by as much as 2.9 degrees Celsius by the end of the century under current conditions, according to a U.N. report released Wednesday, as scientists warn continued insufficient climate action will accelerate the effects of climate change to catastrophic levels.

Key Facts

The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change report projects that by 2030, greenhouse gas emissions will rise 10.6% above 2010 levels.

The increase is well above the 43% emissions reduction by 2030 (from 2019 levels) that the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change deemed necessary to meet the Paris Climate Agreement’s goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.

Even though several countries have pledged to substantially reduce emissions in recent years, deeper cuts are still needed to meet the 1.5 degree goal—otherwise, U.N. officials have previously warned, the “cascading and irreversible” effects of climate change could lead to severe effects, including drought, hunger, heat, sea-level rise and wildfires.

The 10.6% increase is lower than previous U.N. projections—estimated at 15.9%—which the report attributes to a series of carbon emissions reduction plans and other climate-change-related adaptations, including reforestation, reducing food waste, renewable energy production, carbon dioxide capture and storage.

The report also indicates emissions are unlikely to continue increasing past 2030—a positive sign, according to spokesperson Simon Stiell, who spoke to reporters Wednesday—although it’s not the “rapid downward trend” scientists say is necessary to avoid “catastrophic” warming.

Key Background

The study comes amid devastating wildfires this year that have scorched parts of Europe, as well as the West Coast and Rocky Mountains, sweltering summer heat waves and worldwide droughts and accelerated sea-level rise—all of which were made worse by rising temperatures accelerated by climate change, scientists say. In the U.S., White House officials estimate the Inflation Reduction Act passed this summer will reduce America’s greenhouse gas emissions by 40% by 2030 (from 2005 levels). Scientists, however, doubt countries’ actions are enough to meet the Paris Climate Agreement’s landmark goal of holding global temperatures to 1.5-degrees above pre-industrial levels.

Chief Critic

Republican lawmakers slammed the Inflation Reduction Act, which includes $360 billion to address climate change through measures to produce green energy, arguing it will hurt American energy producers at a time when people are struggling with rising gas prices. In an effort to gain support of moderate Democrats, including West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, Democratic lawmakers inserted provisions into the landmark legislation for investment in fossil fuels and subsidies for new pipelines—a move that has also sparked pushback from environmentalists, who claim it will help fossil fuel producers operate even longer.

Tangent

A study published in August in Nature Communications found major fossil fuel companies are not doing enough to curb emissions either, finding their plans are “incompatible” with the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement. The three companies analyzed in the report—British Petroleum, Equinor and Shell—have all set net-zero emissions goals, with Equinor and Shell planning to achieve it by 2050 while BP hopes to achieve it by 2050.

Further Reading

Current emissions pledges will lead to catastrophic climate breakdown, says UN (Guardian)

‘Incompatible’: Fossil Fuel Giants’ Plans To Slash Greenhouse Gasses Won’t Reach Paris Climate Goals, Study Finds (Forbes)

U.S. And China Emissions Caused $1.8 Trillion Each In Worldwide Economic Damages Over 25 Years, Study Estimates (Forbes)