Georgia Senate Race Remains Nearly Tied Amid Herschel Walker Scandals, Poll Finds

Topline

Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) leads Republican challenger Herschel Walker by two percentage points, according to an Emerson College poll released Tuesday, leaving the two candidates virtually tied, after the key Senate race was shaken up last week by allegations that Walker paid for a woman to get an abortion despite his opposition to the procedure.

Key Facts

In the survey of 1,000 likely general election voters in Georgia, Warnock led Walker 48% to 46%, meaning the two candidates are within the poll’s three-point margin of error, and 4% of voters are undecided.

The survey was taken October 6 and 7, just days after The Daily Beast reported that in 2009, Walker—who supports banning abortions— paid his then-girlfriend to get an abortion (Walker denied the allegations).

It represents a slight improvement for Warnock, after an Emerson survey in August showed Walker leading 46% to 44%, though 7% of voters said they were undecided at the time.

Some 55% of voters expect Warnock to be reelected, while 45% said they believe Walker will win, according to Tuesday’s Emerson poll, similar to August, when 53% of voters predicted Walker will win reelection.

Men support Walker 50% to 44% while women back Warnock 51% to 42%, according to Emerson—the gap has widened since August, with Warnock gaining four points with women and Walker losing two with men.

Key Background

In late June, Warnock began to climb ahead of Walker, a retired NFL and University of Georgia football player backed by former President Donald Trump, according to FiveThirtyEight. Walker has drawn controversy in the past: His ex-wife and other women have accused him of violent behavior, an allegation he admitted to in general terms and blamed on mental health issues. Reports have also emerged that Walker had at least three children with different women that he hadn’t previously discussed publicly. The Daily Beast’s abortion reporting has brought new scrutiny to the race in the past week, as abortion has become a key issue for many midterm voters and a central focus for Democratic campaigns in the wake of Roe v. Wade’s reversal. Despite the scandal, Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.)—who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee—has stood behind Walker.

Big Number

43%. That’s the percentage of likely Georgia voters who said the Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade has made them more likely to vote in midterm elections, according to the Emerson poll. Some 45% said the decision made no difference.

Tangent

The Senate is currently split 50-50 between the two parties, with Democrats controlling the chamber due to Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote. Republicans see Georgia as one of their best chances to flip a seat and regain control of the upper chamber. In the House, where Democrats currently hold a slim 222-213 majority, Republicans are favored to win control in November.

Further Reading

Herschel Walker’s Son Christian Turns On Him—‘Everything Is A Lie’—As Scandal Grows (Forbes)

Warnock asked about Walker allegations. Hear his response (CNN)

Republican Party ‘Stands With’ Herschel Walker Amid Abortion Scandal, National Chair Says (Forbes)