GBP/USD could drop back below 1.25 on solid US data and 25 bps from the BoE – SocGen

GBP is vulnerable if the BoE does not hike by 50 bps, in the view of Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale.

The market is split between a 25 bps and 50 bps BoE hike

We wait for the UK MPC to hike, with expectations split down the middle between a 25 bps and a 50 bps move. That pretty much guarantees a reaction. 

With inflation falling, house prices falling and economic sentiment gloomy, a 25 bps hike with a warning there could yet be more to come, would seem sensible. But given where expectations are that leaves GBP vulnerable this week. 

25 bps from the Bank, and solid US data, could easily drag GBP/USD back below 1.25.