GBP: Retail surprise tempers Pound outlook – TD Securities

TD Securities analysts note United Kingdom (UK) Retail Sales for March surprised to the upside at 0.7% month-on-month versus their 0.1% forecast and a flat market consensus. The strength was driven mainly by food and fuel, with Easter timing and front-loaded fuel purchases. They stress value growth outpacing volumes and see the data as flattering rather than signaling runaway UK economic strength.

Retail beat driven by food and fuel

“Retail sales surprised strongly to the upside, registering 0.7% m/m (TDS: 0.1%; mkt: 0.0%; prior: -0.4%).”

“The pickup was driven disproportionately by food stores and automotive fuel, rather than a broad based improvement in discretionary spending.”

“Food sales were lifted by Easter timing effects, while fuel sales made an outsized contribution to the headline as front-loading volumes and prices both supported spending.”

“As in recent months, value growth outpaced volumes, pointing to lingering price effects rather than a clear rebound in underlying demand.”

“Overall, March’s strength flatteringly reflects seasonal and compositional factors, rather than point to runaway strength in the UK economy.”

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)