Forecast at 5,350 by 1Q2024 and 15,000 in 12 months – MUFG

USD/IDR continued to be buffeted by volatile and rising US rates in 2023. Economists at MUFG Bank analyze the pair’s outlook for the next year.

Good macro stability offsets lower commodity prices

We forecast USD/IDR at 15,350 in 3 months and 15,000 in 12 months.

We think IDR will benefit from lower US yields and a weaker Dollar through the course of 2024.

Indonesia’s domestic macro stability such as inflation and the fiscal deficit continue to look quite robust, notwithstanding headwinds outside of its control such as low coal and palm prices.

We see Bank Indonesia cutting rates by 50 bps in 2024, with risk tilted toward earlier and faster cuts assuming IDR stability continues.