Florida Braces For Tropical Threat On Day 1 Of Hurricane Season

Topline

A large area of storms located near the Yucatan Peninsula is likely to develop into a tropical depression in the coming days as it heads toward Florida, bringing a flash flood threat to the state in the first of what forecasters believe will be many systems in what’s expected to be a historically active 2022 Atlantic hurricane season.

Key Facts

The area of disturbed weather, which is draping storms across nearly the entirety of the Caribbean Sea that lies west of Jamaica, has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next 48 hours, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Heavy rain with the potential to cause flash flooding is expected to be the biggest impact, which will likely arrive in south Florida by Friday and continue into Saturday.

Up to 8 inches of rain are expected in south Florida from the system, though amounts could be higher in isolated areas, according to Miami’s National Weather Service office.

The system is made up of remnants of Hurricane Agatha, which slammed into the Pacific coast of Mexico’s Oaxaca state as a Category 2 storm on Monday.

If the remnants reach tropical storm strength, the system would be called Tropical Storm Alex—the first name on the Atlantic list for the 2022 season.

Key Background

Monday is the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs through November 30. All major forecasters are calling for an above-normal season, with some suggesting it will be among the most active in history. Government forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration put the odds of an above-average season at 65%, with a 25% chance for a near-normal season and only 10% chance of a below-average season. Meteorologists at Colorado State University issued a forecast in April calling for 19 named storms—the most Colorado State has ever predicted since the institution pioneered seasonal hurricane outlooks in 1984. A La Nina pattern causing warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures and reduced storm-suppressing wind shear is the main factor in the forecasts, along with an exceptional period of storm activity the Atlantic basin has been in for the past two years. The 2020 season brought 30 named storms, making it the most active since record keeping started in 1851. Nineteen named storms followed in 2021—the third most ever recorded in a single season.

Contra

No named storms formed this year prior to the official June 1 start date of the season–the first time that’s happened since 2014. The seven-year streak of having preseason storms was the longest in history.

Tangent

The National Hurricane Center is also monitoring a system to the northwest of the Bahamas, but it’s not expected to impact any major land areas and is only being given a 10% chance to develop.

Further Reading

Hurricane Researchers Issue Their Most Active Preseason Forecast Ever (Forbes)

Hurricane Agatha kills 11, leaves 20 missing in south Mexico (Associated Press)