Errol Spence Vs. Yordenis Ugas: Odds, Records, Prediction

Errol Spence has already got an impressive resume of victories. He’s considered one of the best fighters in the world (he’s No. 3 on my pound-for-pound list). and he’s one of the best three or four PPV attractions in the sport. But Yordenis Ugas could be his toughest opponent yet, and even though Spence is a solid betting favorite in their unified welterweight title clash on Saturday night, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Ugas spoil the fight that boxing fans want to see the most: Errol Spence vs. Terence Crawford. Here’s everything you need to know about Errol Spence vs. Yordenis Ugas, including the odds, their records and a prediction on who will win.

What makes Ugas such a potential problem? Well, he’s got confidence (he’s coming off the biggest win of his career vs. Manny Pacquiao that led to the retirement of the all-time great). He hasn’t wavered when facing the best fighters in the sport. And he doesn’t have much of anything to lose vs. Spence.

“When I watched the Manny Pacquiao fight, I watched Ugas represent Cuba in an amazing way,” Hall of Famer Felix Trinidad said. “I believe that Ugas can emulate what he did against Pacquiao in the fight against Spence. His speed and precision is going to wow the crowd in this fight.”

After losing two straight fights to Emanuel Robles and Amir Imam in 2014, Ugas has bounced back in an impressive way. Since then, the 35-year-old has won 12 of his last 13 fights. His only defeat: a disputed loss to Shawn Porter in 2019. Now, he holds a welterweight title, and on Saturday, he’ll try to take Spence’s pair of 147-pound belts to add to his collection.

“From what I’ve seen, Ugas is very physical and very tough. He was waving Shawn Porter forward, so you know he has that fighter spirit inside of him,” Spence said. “ … I watched the Ugas vs. Manny Pacquiao fight live but I haven’t watched it since then. I thought the way that fight went was more because of Pacquiao being a shell of himself.”

That’s a good point. A prime Pacquiao most likely beats Ugas, maybe even knocks him out. But remember, Ugas, who was a late replacement in that fight, was about a 3/1 underdog. He’s an even bigger underdog vs. Spence. Who’s to say he can’t beat Spence in the same way? Especially since Spence hasn’t fought in 14 months after surgery to repair a retinal detachment that kept him out of his own matchup vs. Pacquiao (and with his devastating car crash in 2019, he’s only fought once in 30 months).

Well, Spence for one—even though he knows Ugas is no pushover.

“I have everything in my arsenal. Whatever Ugas brings to the table, I’m ready for it. I’m going to dictate the pace and control everything. I’m making him fight my fight,” Spence said. “I can’t sit back and fight a tuneup fight right now. I want to go straight in with the sharks. Ugas is going to push me to another level, and that’s what I want. I knew that if I was fighting a tuneup, I could sneak snacks in at night and stuff like that. I’m fighting someone on my level.”

Here’s more info on the Errol Spence vs. Yordenis Ugas showdown that U.S. viewers can watch for $74.99 on Showtime PPV beginning at 9 p.m. ET.

Errol Spence vs. Yordenis Ugas odds

Ever since the initial money lines came out for this fight, Spence’s odds have gotten wider and wider. Originally, he was -350, and for most of the past month, he’s been -600. But as of this writing, he’s at -700 (bet $700 to win $100), while Ugas is the +450 underdog (win $450 on a $100 wager). Originally, Ugas was +250, so if you like Ugas to pull the upset, the current price is a great one (and even if you heavily favor Spence, it’s not the worst idea to put a little something on Ugas’ money line, especially because I think, if Ugas and Spence fought 10 times, Ugas would win at least twice).

If you like Spence to win, I’d probably wager on a victory by decision (-175) instead of a KO/TKO (+260).

If you were looking for a fun parlay for this weekend’s action of boxing (and this is only for entertainment purposes), I might take Spence to beat Ugas by decision at -175 and the Isaac Cruz vs. Yuriorkis Gamboa fight to go over 7.5 rounds at -120. If both of those hit, you’d win $188 on a $100 wager.

Errol Spence vs. Yordenis Ugas records

While Spence (27-0, 21 KOs) hasn’t been all that active the past few years, five of his last six opponents have been world class. That includes Danny Garcia, Mikey Garcia, Shawn Porter, Lamont Peterson and Kell Brook. Spence beat them all. Though Spence has a solid knockout percentage, he’s only scored one stoppage in his last five fights.

Yes, Ugas’ 27-4 (12 KOs) record doesn’t necessarily show he’s one of the best 147-pounders in the world. But with that win against Pacquiao, his close showing against Porter (which many people believe Ugas actually won) and other victories against solid competitors Jamal James, Bryant Perrella, and Thomas Dulorme, Ugas has shown that he certainly deserves the chance to take down Spence. And that he actually might be too wide of an underdog.

Errol Spence vs. Yordenis Ugas prediction

Aside from his domination of Mikey Garcia, who was coming up in weight to meet Spence, and his first-round stoppage of Carlos Ocampo in 2018, Spence hasn’t exactly blown out his competition lately. I doubt he does that to Ugas either. I can see this fight being close in the first eight or nine rounds (maybe Ugas even has a small lead on the judges’ scorecards halfway through), but in the final few rounds, Spence will show why he’s a level above Ugas and pull away for the close decision victory. Say, somewhere in the 115-113 range.