‘Elvis’ Tops ‘Dune’ With $110 Million

Baz Luhrmann’s Elvis earned another $1.32 million to bring its domestic cume to $110.873 million after 27 days of domestic release. That puts the film above Godzilla Vs. Kong ($100 million in 2021) and Dune ($108 million in 2021) to become Warner Bros.’ fourth-biggest domestic earner in three years behind It Chapter Two ($211 million in September 2019), Joker ($335 million in October 2019) and The Batman ($370 million in March of 2022). It’s also larger than the $110 million gross of Godzilla: King of the Monsters in May of 2019, although the $144 million finish of Detective Pikachu (also May of 2019) seems like a long shot unless it ends up becoming a Best Picture Oscar nominee. Either way, it’s past (as of today) Rocketman ($96 million domestic and $195 million worldwide) and should pass $200 million worldwide (and Lightyear’s $116 million domestic total) over the weekend.

Paramount’s acclaimed Taron Egerton-as-Elton John biopic was a $40 million, R-rated film (with a halfway decent amount of openly gay material), although WB’s Austin Butler-as-Elvis Prestley flick runs 2.75 hours and is obviously dealing with different theatrical circumstances. It’s worth noting that Elvis is playing in circumstances not all that different from Dune. Yes, you had the whole “on HBO Max concurrently for the first 31 days” factor, but the films that broke out on HBO Max (Godzilla Vs. Kong, The Suicide Squad, Space Jam: A New Legacy, The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It) were mostly the same films that (whether they were commercially successful) earned the most in theaters. It’s not like In the Heights and Malignant bombed in theaters but became HBO Max dynamos. Mortal Kombat (which grossed $85 million global but became the most watched of the 2021 WB theatrical releases) is an exception to the rule.

I was frankly tearing my hair out last October trying to explain that Dune was, at best, a Covid curve success. It earned about as much domestically as Batman & Robin or Godzilla: King of the Monsters. It grossed about as much worldwide as The Golden Compass or The Mummy. By pre-Covid standards, a $165 million film barely topping $100 million domestic and barely passing $400 million worldwide is more a bullet dodged than a franchise saved or born. Think Pacific Rim, The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor or The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader. Dune has enough variables (six Oscar wins, including a Best Picture nomination, mostly rave reviews, a media rooting for it, etc.) to qualify as a Covid curve success. However, that an adult-skewing rock-and-roll biopic (from the same studio) has now outgrossed it domestically frankly places an even larger asterisk next to the notion of its commercial “success.”

I’m on record in believing that Dune part Two will make more theatrically than Dune when it opens in November 2023. $20 says it is waiting for Star Trek 4 and/or Star Wars to vacate the prime December 2023 release slot before positioning itself there, making its theatrical future all the brighter. I was never more optimistic about Dune than when it was supposed to open on December 18, 2020, and positioning Dune part II as the year-end mega-fantasy tentpole makes as much sense in 2023 as it would have in a non-Covid 2020. History shows that well-liked “part 1 of 2” films spawn “part 2 of 2” flicks that outearn their immediate predecessors. Think Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part II, Avengers: Endgame and even The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn 2 (which cracked $800 million worldwide compared to its $700 million-grossing predecessor). How much more is the question.

I don’t believe that Dune opening sans HBO Max in October of 2021 would have otherwise cleared $200 million domestic and $600 million worldwide. You can sell me on the “+15% due to Covid” bump and “another 10% due to HBO Max” which might have been around $140 million/$475 million (maybe $500 million global if I’m feeling optimistic). That Dune didn’t drop dead overseas even after HBO Max-caused piracy means that piracy might have been a nominal factor. Moreover, that Elvis has earned more than Dune domestically (right alongside Top Gun: Maverick playing as the adult-skewing blockbuster of a generation) means that maybe Dune earned closer to what it would have made in normal times, sans HBO Max, sans Covid but also sans a lack of competition and its placement as a must-hit theatrical savior for non-comic book movies. So, without getting doom-n-gloom, let’s do some math.

An upswing on par with Avengers 4 (+72% in China but +27% domestically and +36% worldwide compared to Avengers 3) gets Dune part Two to $70 million in China, $137 million domestic and $544 million worldwide. That would be a rock-solid result for a film likely to sit at the awards season table and whose existence does not demand further sequels. Meanwhile, a bump akin to Harry Potter 7.2 (+29% domestically and +38% worldwide partially thanks to a 3-D conversion) gives Dune 2 a $139 million domestic and $552 million worldwide cume. Breaking Dawn part II earned $292 million domestic, which was up +4% from Breaking Dawn part II ($281 million), which was still lower than New Moon ($296 million) and Eclipse ($300 million). It jumped +25% overseas and 16% worldwide for a $535 million foreign and $830 million worldwide cume. That would be around $112 million domestic and $477 million worldwide.

So, using relevant comparisons, Dune part Two should/could earn around $140 million domestic and between $475 million and $555 million worldwide. Sans a guaranteed surge in China or a 3-D conversion, and this is not a prediction; I’d surmise a domestic boost on par with Avengers and Harry Potter (over/under $140 million domestic) and an overseas increase closer to Twilight (around $365 million overseas) for a good-enough $505 million worldwide finish. However, suppose Dune becomes a “folks discover it post-theatrical” slow burner between late 2021 and late 2023. Dune part Two (which adds Austin Butler, Christopher Walken and Florence Pugh while putting Zendaya far more front-and-center alongside Timothée Chalamet) could play as a breakout sequel, especially if it opens in December instead of November. Instead, we might see global grosses on par with an actual Twilight Saga sequel for an over/under $700 million global finish. Once again, Warner Bros. is more than Batman and Harry Potter.

Either way, Elvis is another big win for the idea that adult moviegoers will return to theaters for the right movie. It’s another sign that musically-skewed biopics (and outright live-action musicals) are becoming as safe of a bet amid Covid as they were before Covid. While In the Heights and West Side Story were not commercial successes, their over/under $30 million domestic cumes towered over most of last year’s dramas, thrillers and non-IP theatrical releases. Moreover, yes, it’s more evidence that the Warner Bros. that pushed The Meg to $530 million, opened It with $123 million and turned Joker into a $1 billion blockbuster need not put all of its chips into the DC Comics basket. If Elvis is WBD’s miracle number one, then perhaps Olivia Wilde’s Don’t Worry Darling (September 23) will be miracle number two (unless DC’s League of Super-Pets overperforms first). I wonder when we’ll get a second trailer for… (checks email)… dammit!