Could Bears Hang Onto Fields While Waiting For USC’s Williams?

The NFL draft creeps closer, and Bears General Manager Ryan Poles continues to hold his cards close to his vest. It remains anyone’s guess which way Poles is leaning in regard to the first overall pick and the team’s future at quarterback.

Will the Bears re-commit to building their team behind Justin Fields, the electrifying runner inherited from the Ryan Pace regime? Will they trade Fields and select a replacement in Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud or Will Levis?

CBS Sports’ NFL insider Jason La Canfora has had Chicago fans talking for a week about his report that Poles is moving away from Fields. “More than one NFL general manager came away from the Senior Bowl fairly convinced that Justin Fields will be dealt,” La Canfora tweeted.

The reality is nothing is likely to happen on the quarterback/draft fronts until after free agency plays out in March. It’s safe to say the Bears won’t be among the teams pursuing veterans quarterbacks like Derek Carr, Aaron Rodgers and Jimmy Garoppolo but otherwise it is far too early to draw any conclusions.

Trading Fields is a possibility if Poles is convinced that one of the quarterbacks in this draft will turn out to be as impactful as Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert or Jalen Hurts. But the Bears have major needs at multiple positions, and Fields does not offer nearly as much value in a trade as the first overall pick, which theoretically the Bears would have to use to replace Fields.

The safest bet for this draft may be to upgrade the supporting cast and give Fields another season to take a step forward like Hurts did with the Philadelphia Eagles this season. If he remains a running quarterback with questionable passing skills, the Bears could shift their focus to USC’s Caleb Williams (or North Carolina’s Drake Maye) in the 2024 draft.

There are parallels between Fields and the pre-2022 version of Hurts. Fields was 25th in passer rating this season, ranking between Carr and Mac Jones. Hurts was 21st in ’21, between Davis Mills and Lamar Jackson. He finished fourth this season after the Eagles added A.J. Brown and developed an elite offensive line.

Fields has never been a high-volume passer, which has limited his value. But as a sophomore at Ohio State, after transferring from Georgia, he ranked fourth in the NCAA in passer rating. He was behind Tua Tagovailoa, Burrow and Hurts but ahead of Herbert and Trevor Lawrence.

That said, he never compiled numbers like Williams has for USC. The 21-year-old from Washington, D.C., looks as much like the second coming of Mahomes as anyone — a comparison first made by throwing guru Tom House — and likely would be the buzz guy for the upcoming draft if he didn’t have one more year of college left.

Williams accounted for 52 touchdowns last season, 42 in the air and 10 on the ground. He was sacked 30 times but threw only five interceptions.

Five of the first eight teams set to pick immediately after the Bears in the April draft — Houston (2), Indianapolis (4), Seattle (5), Las Vegas (7) and Carolina (9) — are in the market for quarterbacks. This sets up a scenario where Poles can accumulate massive draft capital by making at least two trades near the top of the draft.

It seems likely the first deal would be to move the first overall pick to Indianapolis (or even Houston, if the Texans can be convinced the Bears would take a quarterback). That would give the Bears the fourth pick (or the second), which they could then deal to Seattle, Carolina or a team picking later, like Tennessee (11), the New York Jets (13) or Tampa Bay (19).

The Bears currently have eight picks in this year’s draft, including seven in the first five rounds. Poles will likely acquire some picks for 2024 and later if he trades out of the first overall pick, and possibly could add two first-round picks in ’24 if he made multiple trades down in the first round.

Poles would be well positioned for the future if came away from the draft with three first-round picks for ’24 (including the Bears’ own pick). That would give him the capital to trade up for the first overall pick next year, possibly adding Williams if Fields did not establish himself as a franchise cornerstone.

But first Poles must use free agency and the upcoming draft to build a supporting cast like the one that helped Hurts’ development in Philadelphia. It won’t matter what the Bears do if they fail to add some targets and pass protection for their quarterback, whoever he is.