Cody Bellinger Confronts New Reality Thanks To Non-Tender Decision

The Los Angeles Dodgers decided not to tender centerfielder Cody Bellinger a contract for the 2023 season making him a free agent. In what many would consider a shocking move due to Bellinger’s past achievements, the 27-year-old needs a change of scenery given the struggles he has confronted over the past three seasons. Bellinger has dealt with significant health issues such as a hairline fracture of his left fibula, left rib fracture, hamstring injury, and surgery to repair his right shoulder after multiple dislocations. He missed 67 ball games during the 2021 season while posting a career low On-Base Plus Slugging (.542). A former National League Rookie of the Year (2017) and Most Valuable Player (2019), Bellinger confronts a new reality thanks to the non-tender decision.

Bellinger avoided arbitration with the Dodgers and signed a one-year, $17 million contract for the 2022 season according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. He had qualified for Super Two status at the conclusion of the 2019 season as Bellinger ranked in the top 22 percent in terms of service time among ball players who had amassed between two and three seasons of major league service. Therefore, Bellinger received four seasons of arbitration eligibility instead of the traditional three. He regularly avoided arbitration with the Dodgers and had signed three, one-year contracts which totaled $44.6 million in value.

In January 2020, Bellinger set a salary record for a first-time arbitration eligible ball player when he received a one-year contract from the Dodgers valued at $11.5 million according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. He had just won the National League’s Most Valuable Player Award in his age 23 season as well as his first Gold Glove and Silver Slugger Awards. Along with a second All Star Game appearance, Bellinger was drawing favorable comparisons to the likes of Hall of Fame catcher Johnny Bench given what he was able to accomplish from an individual awards perspective prior to his age 25 season. Bellinger is one of 27 ball players who have won a Rookie of the Year and Most Valuable Player Awards.

According to the Associated Press, the Dodgers’ 2022 payroll for Competitive Balance Tax purposes could be as much as $289.96 million accompanied by a second time payor penalty of approximately $29.4 million. Even as they have paid a combined $182 million in Competitive Balance Tax penalties between the 2013 – 2021 seasons, the Dodgers are still an aggressive ball club when it comes to payroll spending. However, they are currently looking for flexibility to pursue elite free agents such as shortstop Trea Turner and outfielder Aaron Judge. The New York Yankees and San Francisco Giants are the Dodgers’ primary competitors this offseason for multiple free agents.

Every dollar counts as it would be hard to justify paying Bellinger at least $18 million in his final year of arbitration eligibility given he had produced a 1.2 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) based on Baseball-Reference’s calculation for the 2022 season. The Giants had just avoided arbitration with outfielder Mike Yastrzemski in his second year of eligibility on a one-year, $6.1 million contract. The 32-year-old outfielder was rewarded with a 65 percent increase in salary and shared statistical similarities with Bellinger last season. Free agent outfielder Joc Pederson richly benefitted when he accepted the Giants’ one-year, $19.65 million qualifying offer which means the 30-year-old outfielder is enjoying a 227.5 percent increase in salary. Bellinger’s 2023 salary will likely align closer to Pederson’s even though Yastrzemski provides the better comparison.

The following chart compares 15 ball players who had a minimum average annual value salary of $17 million for the 2022 season and played at least 30 ball games in the outfield by using Baseball-Reference’s calculation of WAR.

The Dodgers parting ways with Bellinger doesn’t mean the relationship has come to an end. A reunion through free agency at a discounted salary is an option as both parties would avoid the arbitration process. Bellinger needs to silence the chorus of voices that have been offering advice and eliminate bad habits that have developed over time. As injuries have adversely affected Bellinger’s performance in recent seasons, he still must make the necessary adjustments in a timely manner.

Baseball Savant’s Barrel Percentage identities a key area of concern regarding Bellinger and hard contact. In 2019, Bellinger posted a 12.7 Barrel Percentage and was tied for tenth alongside Freddie Freeman with 58 barrels among 250 ball players who had achieved the minimum batted ball events. This equates to an 8.8 Barrels per Plate Appearance Percentage which ranked 20^th among the same group of ball players. This past season, Bellinger produced an 8.3 Barrel Percentage and was tied for 102^nd with 30 barrels among 252 ball players who had achieved the minimum batted ball events. His 5.5 Barrels Per Plate Appearance Percentage was tied for 119^th among the same group of ball players.

Bellinger’s Out of Zone Swing Percentage has steadily increased every season since 2019 with a career high 31.8 percent this past season according to Baseball Savant. His strikeout percentage also reached a career high in 2022 at 27.3 percent. Out of 63 National League ball players who had achieved the minimum qualified plate appearances in 2022 according to FanGraphs, Bellinger had the lowest on base percentage of .265 thanks in part to the fifth highest strikeout percentage. Over 549 plate appearances in 2022, Bellinger saw a defensive shift in 497 plate appearances (90.5 percent) according to Baseball Savant. In 2019, Bellinger confronted a defensive shift in 513 plate appearances out of a possible 640 (80.2 percent).

Ball players who are non-tendered carry the stigma of rejection as Cody Bellinger is confronting the realities of payroll management and declining performance. Instead of focusing on the negative and how embarrassing this must be for a ball player of Bellinger’s stature, an opportunity exists for a rebirth through a return to fundamentals. Bellinger is an attractive option if a ball club is looking to catch lightning in a bottle with an affordable one-year contract. The quintessential definition of a short-term loss for a long-term gain should motivate Bellinger if he is healthy and can make the necessary adjustments. Regardless of compensation, Bellinger needs to reestablish himself in 2023 as one of Major League Baseball’s brightest stars who is once again a desirable asset by championship caliber ball clubs.