Climate Change Could Drive Wildfire Risk Up 50% By End Of Century, UN Warns

Topline

Global warming and changing land use is set to drive up the risk of extreme wildfires by 50% by 2100, according to a landmark report from the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) published Wednesday, which calls for a radical shift in how governments treat the blazes after another devastating year of fires. 

Key Facts

The risk of devastating wildfires is set to jump 14% by 2030 and 30% by 2050, according to the UN report compiled by more than 50 top researchers from around the world.

Climate change and changing land use are driving a “global wildfire crisis” that could see conflagrations burn longer and hotter, the report said, including in parts of the world previously unaffected by fires like the Arctic. 

The researchers called for governments to dramatically shift their approach to preventing, rather than fighting, fires, which they said would be more effective. 

The report’s “Fire Ready Formula” proposes governments allocate two-thirds of their budgets to planning, prevention, preparedness, and recovery, which currently receives less than 1% of total spend.

A formula suggests the remaining third is devoted to fighting fires, which takes up more than half of funding at the moment.

To better prevent fires, the scientists suggest improving international cooperation, making better use of indigenous knowledge and using science-based monitoring systems.

Key Background

While some fires are essential for ecosystems to function—the report termed these “landscape fires”— the researchers said wildfires are an “unusual or extraordinary free-burning vegetation fire” that pose an environmental, societal or economic risk. They have devastated vast swathes of the world in recent years, including parts of the U.S., Siberia, Europe, China and Australia and experts believe pollution from wildfires is driving a litany of health issues and could be responsible for tens of thousands of deaths around the world each year. Soaring temperatures, stronger winds and tinder-dry conditions, all amplified by climate change, make these fires more likely to occur and spread and emissions released by the fires exacerbate this. Wildfires are not the only disasters expected to increase over the next few decades, with the number of weather-related disasters predicted to increase in severity and frequency. 

Crucial Quote

“Current government responses to wildfires are often putting money in the wrong place,” said UNEP director Inger Andersen. “We have to minimize the risk of extreme wildfires by being better prepared: invest more in fire risk reduction, work with local communities, and strengthen global commitment to fight climate change”.

Further Reading

Spreading Like Wildfire: The Rising Threat of Extraordinary Landscape Fires (UNEP)

Hurricanes, Floods, Wildfires And Extreme Heat: A Timeline Of Devastating Weather Events In The U.S. This Summer—The Hottest On Record (Forbes)

Increased Air Pollution Boosts Chances Of Severe Mental Illness, Study Finds (Forbes)

Wildfire Pollution Kills Thousands Of Americans Each Year, Study Finds (Forbes)