Chicago Cubs Need A Resurgent Kyle Hendricks In 2022

There’s no question that Kyle Hendricks had the worst season of his career in 2021. Look down the columns of his stat line and by nearly every metric, he was way off of his norm last season.

What is harder to identify is why this happened. Hendricks didn’t have any significant injury issues in 2021, and the closest we came to an explanation was from Cubs pitching coach Tommy Hottovy in September.

At the time, Hottovy said Hendricks’ struggles were likely caused by two things: His first season pitching for a noncompetitive team and a general move away from what had made him consistently good in the past.

“Every year he’s been here, minus the end of 2014, we’ve been pitching for something late in the season, whether it’s postseason, before he signed his contract,’’ Hottovy said in September. ‘‘It was a lot of proving that he can do this at this level for a long time, so I think it’s just different motivation right now.’’

It’s easy to understand why, in a season that upended the Cubs’ most successful core in franchise history, someone like Hendricks might have struggled mentally to focus and perform the same way that he had in years past.

Whatever the case, however, the Cubs could be close to being legitimate contenders again in 2022, depending on how the rest of free agency plays out once the lockout ends.

If they are going to get back to the top of their division, the Cubs can’t do it without Hendricks pitching more like his old self. And the explanation for last year’s struggles would indicate that the two things depend on each other to some degree. The Cubs need Hendricks to be good, and Hendricks needs to the Cubs to be winners to help him do well on the mound.

As circular as that might seem, it might be the key to Hendricks getting his form back in 2022.

A lot of that will depend on if Hendricks can get his fourseam/changeup combo back on track. Last year, he had uncharacteristic struggles with both pitches. Opposing hitters batted .266 against his changeup last year. Before the 2021 season, they had managed below .200 across Hendricks’ career. The same was true of his fourseam fastball. In his career, opposing batters have batted just .240 against Hendricks’ fourseamer, but in 2021 they touched him up to the tune of .300.

There’s no obvious reason why hitters fared so much better against those pitches in 2021. Hendricks has never thrown hard but has always located well, and he has mastered the art of consistent delivery, so that his fastball and changeup look the same coming out of his hand.

That might be the problem, though. The subliminal difference in Hendricks’ mental outlook on a noncompetitive season might have done just enough to cause him to stray from his consistent delivery. There were also somewhat persistent rumors that he was tipping his pitches early in the season. In April, Hendricks talked about feeling like some of his pitches were coming out a little flat.

Hendricks has two more seasons left on his four-year, $55.5 million deal (with a $16 million vesting option for 2024), and that means that the Cubs have limited time left for a competitive window that includes Hendricks. And based on how he performed in 2021, he is a better pitcher when his team is competitive.

If that’s the case, then a winning Cubs team might be all that Hendricks needs to right the ship. Even through the first few months of the 2021 season, when Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Javier Baez were still on the team, the cloud of uncertainty still hung over Chicago. Getting to pitch for a 2022 club that is headed in a better direction might be enough to get Hendricks right. At least, the Cubs better hope so.