Breaking Down Thunder’s Slow Start To Final Stretch

Once the NBA All-Star break passes each season, competition around the league rises to a new level. This is a time for teams to reset and players to rest and recover before making one final push.

For young teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder, this is generally one of the more difficult times of the year. The Thunder were 28-29 exiting the break, sitting at tenth in the Western Conference with a clear path to making the play-in.

Prior to the break, OKC was playing its best basketball of the season and had been one of the top teams statistically since the turn of the calendar year. That momentum has come to a stop, as the team hasn’t won a game since NBA All-Star Weekend.

Now 0-3 since this event, the Thunder lost to the Utah Jazz in overtime, then to the Phoenix Suns and Sacramento Kings by nine points each.

Oklahoma City hasn’t been very efficient from the floor, shooting 43.3% overall and 33.9% from deep. While the Thunder have still managed to put together an offensive rating in the top half of the league, they’re a bottom ten defense over this stretch.

With how tight the West standings are, Oklahoma City has plummeted to No. 13 in the conference. With that in mind, the Thunder’s 28-32 record has them just 1.5 games out of the play-in and 3.0 games from the sixth seed.

While the postseason is still very much in play for the youngest team in NBA history, the margin of error the rest of the way is thin. The Thunder have just 22 games remaining, with a schedule that contains minimal rest. In the next two weeks the team will play eight games, including a pair of back-to-backs. Furthermore, the Thunder’s next seven games are all against Western Conference teams with playoff aspirations.

It truly feels as if this upcoming stretch will dictate Oklahoma City’s ability to see postseason action. Beating these types of teams can help solidify tiebreakers and allow the team to climb the standings quickly. The reverse is equally true, as a poor showing the next two weeks could bury the Thunder in the standings.

A huge swing factor in all of this is the health of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. One of the best players in the league, he’s missed the past two games for the Thunder with an abdominal and ankle injury and his status moving forward is still somewhat unclear. If he’s able to return to action soon and stay healthy, the Thunder will have a real shot at making a run. If not, they could continue to struggle in his absence.

Simply put, the slow start and injuries following the break have proven to be potentially detrimental to the Thunder’s playoff hopes. They’ll need to be extremely competitive the rest of the way to maintain that hope. Regardless, if they miss the play-in altogether, it just increases their odds of a high lottery pick.

As such, Oklahoma City is in a great position in which the season should finish with a positive outcome one way other the other.