Break above 14,425 may trigger stronger verbal interventions from BI – TDS

Economists at TD Securities analyze USD/IDR outlook ahead of Thursday’s Bank Indonesia meeting.

USD/IDR in an uptrend channel since early May

We expect Bank Indonesia to leave its 7-day reverse repo rate at 5.75%, extending its pause since February.

It’s a goldilocks scenario for BI with inflation continuing its retreat and GDP growth rising at a steady pace. Nevertheless, these benign developments are likely welcomed by BI though the weakness in IDR against the USD may nudge them to keep rate cuts off the table.

USD/IDR has been in an uptrend channel since early May and a break above the channel highs of 15,425 may trigger stronger verbal interventions from BI.

We think this USD strength may continue as liquidity is typically poor amid summer months and prefer to stay clear of the USD.