Because Of Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen’s Eye Injury Won’t Change The Course Of The Cleveland Cavaliers’ Season

In March 2022, Cleveland Cavaliers center Jarrett Allen fractured a finger on his right hand. It changed the Cavs’ season. When Allen broke his finger, Evan Mobley was a star rookie. He was not ready to prevent that change.

On March 6 last year, in a game against the Toronto Raptors, Allen suffered the fracture (as well as a quad contusion) that caused him to miss Cleveland’s last 18 regular season games. He then missed a play-in game against the Nets, but did play against the Hawks in what turned out to be the team’s last game of the 2021-22 season.

Before the injury, the Cavs were sixth in the East, three games up on the seventh-seeded Raptors and out of the play-in tournament. They had been as high as third a month before that too. By the end of the regular season, Cleveland ended up eighth, two games back of sixth-seeded Chicago.

Before Allen’s injury, the Cavs had the numbers of a legit playoff team. They were fourth in defensive rating and ninth in net rating. When Allen went out, the defense dropped to 18th and the team’s net rating to 20th.

The Cavs went 8-11 over that stretch. They missed out on a playoff berth that they seemed poised to have — a playoff berth that would have been their first without LeBron James since the 1997-98 season. This was in large part due to Allen — their All-Star defensive lynchpin — missing time.

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Now, in March 2023, Allen is out again — although probably not for as long. This time around, it’s an eye contusion suffered on Friday in a loss to the Heat. It’s unclear when he’ll be back, but per the team, there is no structural damage to his eye. That would seem to indicate Allen won’t miss the entire final stretch of the season like he did last year.

The 2022-23 Cavs, though, are different. They can win games and do more than hang on for dear life if Allen misses time. It’s not optimal — Cleveland is still better with Allen healthy than not, and it’s not a debate — but they can more than survive. The biggest reason this is true is the ascension of Evan Mobley.

When Allen was out last March, Mobley wasn’t ready for what was thrown at him. He didn’t totally sink, but he didn’t swim well in the deep waters at center either. As a rookie, Mobley was not a rim deterrent — he could block shots, but often benefited from Allen’s presence allowing him to rotate back and block a shot from help. Considering he was a 20-year-old rookie with a slight frame, it makes sense that he wasn’t ready to absorb the brunt of playing full-time minutes at the five.

The lineup data reflects this. Last season, lineups with Mobley at center, per Cleaning The Glass, were +3.6 per 100 possessions with a slightly below average defensive rating. With Mobley at power forward and Allen on defense, the Cavs outscored teams by 3.2 points per 100 possessions, but held teams to 105.5 points per 100 possessions.

In short: When Mobley was the only center on the floor as a rookie, the offense worked, but the defense didn’t play up to the Cavs’ overall standard. When Allen and Mobley were on the floor together, the defense was elite.

The 2022-23 season has been a different story. With Mobley at center, the Cavs are outscoring teams by 9.9 points per 100 possessions with a defensive rating of 106.6 per 100 possessions. (The offense is good too, at 116.4 per 100). By comparison, Mobley and Allen lineups are +6.8 per 100 possessions and giving up about five points more per 100 possessions. (The offense, though, is a little bit better with both on the floor.) By comparison, Allen-only lineups are +8.5 per 100 possessions this season vs. +4.4 per 100 last year.

There’s some other factors in these lineups beyond the Allen/Mobley dynamic. (See: Mitchell, Donovan raising the floor of the entire team.) But Mobley coming into year two a little bit bigger has mattered — he better holds up now when defending the rim by himself because he can better absorb straight line drives into his chest. His block rate is down a small bit this year, but it doesn’t feel like it based on the film.

The Cavs have leaned into this too. Mobley at center lineups usually feature Darius Garland at point guard and otherwise feature Donovan Mitchell at shooting guard with two wings or Garland plus three wings. The concept is simple: lots of space around Mobley so he can roll into the paint on offense and cover for everyone on the other end. The bet has absolutely worked.

A small note: The Cavs barely played Kevin Love with Mobley, there’s no noise in numbers affected one way or the other by lineups featuring Love. That means something now that the Cavs are in their post-Love era.

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Again: There is no indication that Allen is going to miss as much time as he did last year. Cleveland will still need him, particularly in games where they deal with bigger centers that Mobley hasn’t added enough muscle to defend the NBA’s goliaths full-time just yet. Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid comes to mind, as the Cavs host the 76ers on Wednesday. Giannis Antetokounmpo looms if Cleveland plays Milwaukee in the playoffs.

But it’s important to note that Cleveland isn’t as dependent on Allen as it was a year ago. There also may be moments where the Cavs have to lean into Mobley at the five. Think back to the recent games at the Celtics, for instance. Against Allen, Boston often put two defenders between Allen and the ball to deny him easy cuts into the paint where he could catch lobs or catch the offensive glass. Jaylen Brown also spent time defending Allen.

By doing that, Cleveland running a pick-and-roll with Allen makes less sense, particularly late in the game. Oftentimes, the point of Mitchell or Garland running a pick-and-roll is to force a switch into a big. If Brown (or any other stout defensive wing) is there, there’s no point on switching.

Mobley at the five is the counter to that, particularly the version of Mobley that’s doing everything on defense and morphing into an aggressive, willing scorer on offense. He’s ready.