AUD/USD Forecast – Australian Dollar Continues to Threaten a Breakdown

AUDUSD Forecast Video for 08.03.23

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has fallen rather hard during the course of the trading session on Tuesday, as we are now well below the 0.67 level. At this point, the market is looking likely to go down to the 0.6650 level, which is an area where we have seen a lot of previous support. If we were to break down below there, then the market is likely to drop down to the 0.6450 level. Furthermore, we have recently seen the so-called “death cross”, when the 50-Day EMA breaks down below the 200-Day EMA indicator and is generally seen as a negative turn of events. Because of this, I think you got a situation where the market will continue to be more dollar positive than anything else.

This will continue to be the case as long as the Federal Reserve has decided to be “tighter for longer”, as they have publicly stated. At this point, I think it’s only a matter of time before rallies get sold into at the first signs of exhaustion. With that being said, I like the idea of fading these rallies and taking advantage of momentum, as it continues to see a lot of noise. The Australian dollar of course is a very sensitive currency when it comes to global growth and of course the Chinese mainland, both of which are a bit shaky at the moment, despite the fact that the Chinese have less than desirable numbers at times.

The size of the candlestick does suggest that there is a significant amount of downward pressure building in this market, so I do think that a breakdown is only a matter of time before it actually happens. Rallies at this point will more likely than not be sold into at the first signs of exhaustion, and it would take the market breaking above the 200-Day EMA for me to change my opinion on this pair. All things being equal, I think the US dollar continues to be one of the favorite currencies around the world, and therefore I do believe that the Aussie will continue to be threatened by the juggernaut that is the greenback.

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This article was originally posted on FX Empire