Analysts See Steady Growth For Acadia Pharma's Nuplazid

Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ: ACAD) reported a Q4 EPS loss of $(0.26), missing the consensus of $(0.24) and sales of $136.49 million, beating the consensus of $134.07 million.
For FY23, the company expects Nuplazid sales of $520-$550 million compared to a consensus of $569.16 million.
Raymond James, maintaining a Market Perform rating, writes that 2023 revenue guidance does not include potential contributions from trofinetide, with a PDUFA date of March 12 for Rett Syndrome. The analyst projects around $14.5 million in trofinetide revenues in 2023.
Given the lack of treatment options for Rett patients, if approved, there may be strong early demand for trofinetide. However, a high attrition rate is expected, given its AE profile and modest benefits.
Beyond Rett, ACP-204 (next-generation pimavanserin) is exciting but awaits de-risking data before attributing value to the asset.
Needham writes that while the management sees signs of stabilization in the PDP market, it is not yet seeing definitive signs of recovery. The analyst expects the lower-than-expected Nuplazid guidance to drive some weakness in the stock.
Overall, it remains on the sidelines to foresee limited upside vs. cons. for Nuplazid sales in the near term and trofinetide launch.
The analyst keeps a Hold rating.
Cantor Fitzgerald reiterates its Overweight rating and increases the price target to $28 from $27.
The analyst is optimistic about the revenue beat following the 3Q22 miss, with new patient adds in long-term care facilities on a vector to returning to pre-pandemic levels.
The analyst also notes recent publications pointing to real-world evidence supporting Nuplazid’s differentiated clinical profile, which might provide modest but steady sales growth in 2023.
Price Action: ACAD shares are up 10.72% at $21.48 on the last check Tuesday.