An Offshore Oil Rebound Is Under Way. It’s Lifting These Stocks.

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Offshore oil drilling has been growing slowly in recent years as energy companies have hesitated to commit to expensive new projects that can take years to pay off. But research firm Rystad Energy expects a surge in new spending over the next two years.

With oil and gas demand rising after the pandemic, some companies are looking for projects that can offer reliable production in the longer term. 

The offshore oil-and-gas industry has $214 billion of new project investments lined up in the next two years, the highest two-year total in a decade, according to Rystad Energy. It will be the first time since 2012-2013 that companies have spent this much to develop offshore projects, marking a shift from the recent past.

“Offshore activity is expected to account for 68% of all sanctioned conventional hydrocarbons in 2023 and 2024, up from 40% between 2015-2018,” according to Rystad.

Middle Eastern producers will account for much of the growth, though there are projects off several continents. With Europe looking for new sources of energy now that it has cut ties with Russia, some producers are looking for more offshore growth there. U.K. offshore spending is projected to rise 30% this year to $7 billion, according to Rystad, and spending on Norwegian projects could increase 22% to $21 billion.

North America, Brazil, and Guyana are all seeing growth, too. Guyana has become a particular hot spot for offshore drilling, with

Exxon Mobil

(ticker: XOM) and Hess (HES) in the midst of a major project there. The country is planning to auction off more offshore blocks for exploration, with

Shell

(SHEL),

Petróleo Brasileiro

(PBR), and

Chevron

(CVX) all showing interest, according to Reuters.

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The spending will be a boon for offshore service and equipment companies. In fact, several of those stocks have been rising fast this year after trailing other energy companies since the pandemic. Switzerland-based offshore oil services company

Transocean

(RIG) announced last month that its backlog had risen to its highest level since before the 2014 oil downturn. Its stock is up 60% so far this year alone, finally returning to its early 2020 price levels long after oil producers and refiners had done so.

Valaris

(VAL), another offshore oil contractor based in Houston, is up 8.7% this year. Shares of

Diamond Offshore Drilling

(DO), also an offshore oil contractor, have climbed 20% so far in 2023.

Some of the big oil service companies, including

Schlumberger

(SLB) and

Baker Hughes

(BKR), also do considerable offshore work. On its latest earnings call, Baker Hughes said that its offshore work has been accelerating even as it has seen some slowdowns in North America.

Early in the recovery from the pandemic, oil producers tended to focus on drilling in shale formations, which are cheaper to develop and can start producing oil and gas quickly. Offshore projects take about five years to start up on average, even after approval, according to the International Energy Agency.

Shale-drilling projects have produced much of the growth in oil and gas production over the past decade, but shale projects tend to see diminishing returns earlier than conventional ones. With global oil demand likely to keep rising through the end of this decade, some producers are looking for projects that can sustain production for longer. And now many of them are looking offshore.

Write to Avi Salzman at [email protected]