Adam Schiff And Katie Porter Ahead In Campaign To Replace Dianne Feinstein

Topline

The majority of California Democrats and Independents in a new poll released Thursday favor representatives Adam Schiff and Katie Porter in the high-profile Senate race to succeed long-time Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), though both candidates could appear in the general election, with no Republican challenger, under California’s election laws.

Key Facts

Roughly 22% of California registered Democrats and Independents in a University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll said they would vote for Schiff, a member of the House Intelligence Committee who’s represented the state’s 30th District, east of Los Angeles, since 2001.

The poll, conducted between Feb. 14 and 20, found 20% of respondents support Porter, a three-term progressive Democrat, making her the second vote-getter, ahead of fellow California Democratic representatives Barbara Lee, who received 6% and Ro Khanna, at 4%.

Under California’s so-called top two primary rules, the two candidates with the most votes in the primaries move on to the general election, regardless of their party affiliation.

Among respondents 65 and older, Schiff is running away with the race, with 42% of respondents supporting him over Porter’s 17% and Lee’s 8%, while younger voters tend to support Porter, with 20% of respondents between 18 and 29 supporting her over Schiff’s 8% and Lee’s 6%.

Big Number

39%. That’s the share of Democratic and Independent respondents who said they have not yet made up their mind on the race, with just over a year left before the March 2024 primary. Another 9% said they would choose someone else.

Key Background

Porter became the first of the four representatives in the race to announce her candidacy in January, followed by Schiff, who said two weeks later he would run, but only if Feinstein chose not to seek reelection. Facing calls from several Democrats not to run and an approval rating at its lowest point in her 30 years in office (35%), Feinstein, 89, announced earlier this month she would not seek a sixth term in the Senate. Lee, who was rumored to join the race, made her candidacy official earlier this week. Schiff—who entered the national spotlight as the lead prosecutor in the first impeachment of former President Donald Trump for his role in the January 6 riots at the Capitol—has earned the endorsement from House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.).

Tangent

There have been two election cycles since California implemented its top-two policy in 2011 in which voters in the general election chose between two Democrats for a Senate seat. The first was the 2016 election, when former Sen. and current Vice President Kamala Harris defeated former Rep. Loretta Sanchez (Calif.). The second came in 2018, when Feinstein defeated former California state Sen. Kevin de Leon.

Further Reading

California Sen. Dianne Feinstein, 89, Will Not Seek Reelection (Forbes)

Adam Schiff Running For Feinstein’s Senate Seat—Adding To Crowded Field Of Potential Progressive Challengers (Forbes)

Rep. Katie Porter Will Run For California Senate Seat—As Questions Loom Over Feinstein’s Future (Forbes)