Aaron Judge’s First Official Day As Yankee Captain Features Home Run Talk

A popular question in the opening weeks of spring training involves Aaron Judge and how many homers he will hit.

The prevailing belief is Judge will find it difficult to duplicate the 62 homers from last season. At least it is on the outside world of the Yankees.

Not so much to Judge, who gave his best diplomatic captain type of answer when the question was broached to him by reporters Monday in Tampa in his first on-field day as the team’s first captain since Derek Jeter.

“You never know,” Judge told reporters. “I don’t really like putting a number on it. I just kind of like going out there and trying to control what I can control, but you never know what could happen. So, we’ll see about 62.”

The follow up to a record breaking season can be a challenge to approach previous performance in terms of coming close to matching or falling somewhat short.

After hitting 61 homers in 1961, Roger Maris followed it up by hitting .256 with 33 homers and 100 RBIS while actually struggling to a .237 average at home after batting .286 in the Bronx the previous season. In 1928 Babe Ruth came somewhat close to duplicating the 60 homers by hitting 54 but only 13 were in the final two months, a year after hitting 26 in the final two months.

One way to produce similar results is to figure out any weakness or flaw, which is hard to believe any player owns in a season like last year. Still that is what Judge said he sought to achieve when he solicited advice from others on two-strike hitting, most notably the rare instances when Judge reached an 0-2 count.

Like most when reaching the 0-2 count, Judge is hardly exempt from difficulties. Last year he was 3-for-54 (.056) but in typical fashion of the 62 homer season he two of the three hits were homers. In some of the other two strike categories he was a .213 hitter (20-for-94) with a 1-2 count and a .184 hitter (18-for-98) when the count was at 2-2.

“I’ve got some goals written down, but my individual stats always take care of themselves if I’m focused on the team out there,” Judge said. The game tells you what you need to do.”

The lack of proficiency in two strike situations likely contributed to a contact rate of 72.2 percent although he also led the majors with a 61.8 percent hard hit percentage. The contact placed him 116th amongst qualified hitters, which is why Judge might unveil less of a stride or even no stride with his legs during those type of at-bats.

And in this case, it’s the numbers. The two strike numbers may be the only flaw from last season for Judge, whose recently released Strat-O-Matic card features plenty of home run chances based on all dice rolls.

And next year at this time, Judge will get another notable card. Just how many home run chances it contains is contingent on how close he comes to duplicating last season or even surpassing it.

If there is a chance to surpass it, networks will switch from early season college football coverage to see his at-bats, the stadiums will feature the same things as last year for his at-bats of anticipation, silence and then either elation or jubilation if he homers.

It also is among the more fun storylines for the Yankees as opposed to the consternation of Aaron Hicks possibly struggling in left field, speculating on who will be the fifth starter until Frankie Montas returns or wondering what Josh Donaldson’s bat speed and offensive numbers will look like.

“Every time you play in New York I feel like it’s like you’re chasing history,” Judge said. “I’m used to those moments and I’m looking forward to it.”

So is all of baseball.

As intriguing as the numerous rule changes are, seeing what the follow up to a record breaking achievement in any sports is even more compelling theater. And two months later, the Yankees are glad for a myriad of reasons Judge will follow up his historic season in their pinstripes and not for someone else such as the San Francisco Giants, a situation that might have created an awkward season opener.