A Top Vanguard Economist on How to Prepare for a ‘Shallow’ Recession

Asset manager Vanguard predicts the U.S. economy will enter a “shallow” recession later this year. That would boost unemployment, but probably not as much as we’re used to seeing during downturns, says Roger Aliaga-Diaz, Vanguard’s chief economist, Americas and global head of portfolio construction. The reason is labor shortages, which will remain a long-term concern as demographic trends compress the number of workers available, he says. 

Aliaga-Diaz, who joined Vanguard in 2007, studied at the Universidad Nacional de Córdoba in Argentina and got a doctorate in economics from North Carolina State University. He talked with Barron’s about the economy, his expectations for inflation, and why Vanguard expects international equities to perform better than U.S. stocks.