3 Possible Unintended Consequences Of The New MLS Cup Playoff Format

Major League Soccer on Wednesday revealed a new playoff format that will include the expansion of the field to 18 total teams and a best-of-three format for the round of 16 only.

The awkward and somewhat front-loaded new structure is being pushed by the league as a way to create more postseason matches — up from 13 last year to as many as 33 this year — while also increasing importance on the regular season.

The former point is being sold as a response to fan demand, but is also rumored to be a condition of the team’s new, $250-million per year worldwide streaming deal with Apple TV. The latter hinges on the idea it will be harder for lower seeds to knock off top finishers in a best-of-three series than it was in a first-round, one-game playoff at the higher team’s home.

But the change has been recieved more negatively than positively in league circles. And it also has the potential to create some unintended consequences that MLS and Apple might both view negatively.

Here’s three potential ways the new format could change how MLS works, and not for the better.

Delayed Roster Building And Short-Term Rentals

The idea in the best-of-three series is that it protects the higher seed since it demands a more extended good performance. The flaw is that in, a parity driven league, there is little from stopping a lower seed in loading up late on talent in the season to become the more talented team, especially when it only takes a top-18 finish to get in.

This plays out frequently in NBA basketball, where the regular season finishing order rarely coincides directly with the postseason odds. For the more talented teams, it’s enough just to make sure they get into the eight-team field.

Exhibit A: The Phoenix Suns, who sit sixth in the Western Conference right now but were NBA Finalists a season ago and completed a trade for Kevin Durant at the deadline. They’re now Western Conference favorites in betting markets despite their regular season record.

In comparison to the NBA, which is the best league in its sport on the planet, the available talent to MLS teams at the summer transfer window is almost infinite. And unlike the NBA, soccer often features short-term loan agreements with other teams from other leagues, which could allow clubs to try and cut costs and compete at the same time by pursuing short-term loans if they are having a good or mediocre year and just punt and leave roster spots blank if they’re having a poor run.

The average team will have 10 or 11 regular season games remaining after the close of the summer transfer window in MLS, more than enough time to position for the playoffs following anything other than a truly disastrous start.

Having teams urgent to add talent in the secondary window isn’t a bad thing. But the idea that the strength and depth of your opening day roster doesn’t matter much is concerning. And it will be more so when we see more cost-conscious clubs adhere to this strategy rather than just bigger spenders like LAFC and Toronto FC.

It’s not a way to grow a product nor keep relations decent with your players union. It also contributes to the second possible shift that could happen as a result of this new format.

Lessened demand for MLS Season Pass

For $14.99 a month or $99.99 a year, subscribers to MLS Season Pass will have access to every MLS regular season and playoff game. Apple keeps all of that revenue unless it passes a certain threshold, in which it would share some with MLS. So it’s a little confusing why — if this move really is driven by Apple TV — it would adopt a format that has the appearance of undermining a regular season, even if simulations suggest it protects higher seeds.

With 18 teams reaching the playoffs, some potential consumers may end up deciding it makes more sense just to buy the package for two months of the postseason and in the interim settle for the roughly 40% of regular season matches Apple TV will be showing in front of the Season Pass paywall.

Similarly, FOX Sports will show eight playoff games before MLS Cup — presumably with a focus toward the later single-elimination round. And if the best-of-three series in fact make first-round results more predictable, it could lessen the appeal of subscribing for postseason matches even if there are more total matches.

The counterargument is Season Pass was always a product intended to be focused more toward the most intense supporters. But it’s curious that so little consideration seems to be given to the idea of increasing the importance of regular season games, when that might have gone further to making MLS Season Pass more popular.

Stars miss more games

The expansion of the playoffs combined with the introduction of Leagues Cup will create increased opportunities for teams to win trophies in shorter competitions. This in turn will probably lead to teams opting to rest their stars during league matches more often.

If a team believes it has the superior roster to its competitors, it won’t care so much about the difference between the third and fifth seed, for example. And when you already have the most accomplished teams playing more matches than everyone else because they qualify for Concacaf Champions League, it’s just another factor that could convince coaches to load manager in the regular season.

While the best players in MLS aren’t always older former European stars, the most marketable ones still are. They include: LAFC’s Carlos Vela, the LA Galaxy’s Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez, Toronto FC’s Lorenzo Insigne and the Chicago Fire’s Xherdan Shaqiri.

Even if it’s only slight, the new playoff format has created a climate where a coach might be more likely to rest one of those guys when you buy a ticket or flip on the TV.