‘60% confident’ – Here are the probable odds for spot Ethereum ETF’s approval

• It is speculated the SEC will make a decision on the approval of Ethereum ETFs by 23 May 2024
• Despite the anticipation, industry experts aren’t totally confident in the approval

The cryptocurrency world is abuzz with news that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is poised to decide on the approval of spot Ethereum (ETH) Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) by 23 May 2024. This date is the final deadline for the first batch of these ETFs under consideration. Moreover, this makes it an extremely anticipated event in the crypto-space. 

ETH ETF approval speculations: What you need to know

The driving force behind the optimistic predictions regarding the approval of these ETFs is Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Forex and Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered Bank. Kendrick’s confidence comes from the SEC’s historical position on Ethereum. The commission has not classified Ether as a security in its legal actions against crypto-companies. Furthermore, Ethereum’s status as a regulated Futures contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) adds credibility to the expectation of approval.

The potential approval of Ethereum ETFs can have a significant impact on the price of ETH. Additionally, this helps in drawing parallels with Bitcoin’s price movements preceding the approval of BTC ETFs. Finally, Kendrick believes that Ethereum could see its value surge, possibly hitting $4,000 on the charts.

What do the industry leaders think?

This was a topic of discussion in a recent interview involving Scott Melker and James Seyffart. Seyffart, a research analyst at Bloomberg, thinks that SEC’s initial resistance towards Ethereum ETFs will also ultimately lead to its approval in the near future.

Seyffart said,

“The CME Ethereum market is way smaller; there’s way less volume and way less open interest. So, the SEC could try to draw distinctions there – They could draw distinctions between Proof of Stake (PoS) vs Proof of Work (PoW). There are a lot of avenues that they can take to kick this can down the road further. We will know more in the coming months.”

Some reports, like those from New York-based investment bank TD Cowen, indicate a potential delay in the SEC’s approval of Ethereum ETFs. Furthermore, it could possibly push the dates back to 2025 or 2026. 

This perspective works with the current political climate in the United States. Moreover, this is the perceived cautious approach of the SEC towards cryptocurrency ETFs.

What are the odds that and $ETH ETF gets approved and when?@JSeyff breaks it down on my show. pic.twitter.com/M2nxg4EqiY

— The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) January 31, 2024

Fragility in the future of Ethereum ETFs?

On being questioned about his thoughts on the possibility of Ethereum ETF approval, Seyffart commented,

“I am nowhere near as confident as I was with the Bitcoin ETFs. I’m probably around 60% confident.”

The impact of the SEC’s decision extends beyond Ethereum. The crypto-market as a whole is keenly observing these developments. The approval of Bitcoin ETFs had a marked effect on Bitcoin’s price, though it later registered a downturn. Additionally, a similar market response can emerge for Ethereum after the approval of ETFs.

As we approach the 23 May deadline, the anticipation within the cryptocurrency community is palpable. The SEC’s decision could mark a significant milestone for Ethereum and could potentially influence the trajectory of the entire crypto-market.