When is The Next Crypto Bull Run? Here’s What Could Trigger It

A confluence of court rulings and evolving legislation has cryptoverse bulls anticipating calmer regulatory seas ahead. While far from smooth sailing, these pivotal moments hint the tide may be turning for crypto acceptance.

Keypoints

• Approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF could bring massive institutional investment into crypto, potentially influencing prices.
• The Ripple vs SEC ruling suggests many altcoins are not securities, which could complicate fraud lawsuits against crypto issuers.
• Legal challenges like Bittrex’s are questioning the SEC’s authority to regulate crypto without congressional approval.
• There are growing calls for the CFTC to play a bigger role in crypto regulation as an alternative to the SEC. New legislation also aims to define crypto as “commodity-like”.

Grayscale’s big win against the SEC over its spot Bitcoin ETF denial was a watershed event. The stern judicial rebuke of the SEC’s “arbitrary” stance builds momentum for regulatory approval of these long sought-after products.

Industry analysts now peg approval odds for a Bitcoin spot ETF as high as 75% by early 2024. The impact for igniting institutional inflows could be massive, with estimates ranging up to $17.7 trillion.

The Ripple case also rocked the industry by distinguishing between sophisticated and retail investors when determining whether a token constitutes an unregistered security. This precedent could present new legal defenses for assets like XRP.

Critically, it exemplifies an ideological shift as courts check the SEC’s expansive authority over crypto. Platform Bittrex is directly challenging the agency’s power to regulate tokens as securities without congressional sign-off.

Mounting pressure could open the door for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to grab more crypto oversight real estate from the SEC. The bipartisan Lummis-Gillibrand bill also seeks to define cryptocurrencies as “commodities,” shifting the balance of regulatory power.

Meanwhile, glaring SEC hostility contrasts with Europe’s sweeping “Markets in Crypto Assets” legislation and Switzerland passing advanced crypto laws. The East also races ahead, with China’s digital yuan ambitions and Japan’s leadership in stablecoin frameworks.

This friendly global backdrop may accelerate the SEC’s warming to crypto innovations. With the agency showing some willingness to collaborate with industry, optimism is blooming for balanced guardrails to nurture US crypto markets.

But risks remain ever-present. The next Bitcoin halving occurs in April or May 2023.

Historically, BTC has seen steep price corrections around 6 months prior to past halving events. If this pattern repeats, Bitcoin could plunge back to $20,000 levels in the coming months before starting the bull run proper.

While the crypto winter thaws, the path ahead promises continued volatility. However, these tailwinds signal the crypto spring may bloom brighter than ever before.