Why Bitcoin Prices are Still Below ATH Despite 120% Surge?

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• This year, Bitcoin has seen an increase of approximately 120%, but the typical “Fear Of Missing Out” (FOMO) often associated with bull markets is notably absent.
• RHODL waves, created by Philip Swift, segregate Bitcoin supply into age groups and on-chain compares when this supply last moved.
• On-chain data highlights that those increasing their Bitcoin positions as Onchain reached all-time highs in 2021 are still at a loss.

Bitcoin continues to strongly hold its position above $35,000: What do the data say about the next target of $40,000?

Current Status of On-Chain Data in Bitcoin

Bitcoin continues to make headlines and is now firmly set on the $40,000 level. This year, Bitcoin has seen an increase of approximately 120%, but the typical “Fear Of Missing Out” (FOMO) often associated with bull markets is notably absent.

A closer look at on-chain transactions reveals that Bitcoin’s journey is still in its early stages, with “younger” bitcoins just beginning to participate in network activities. This article focuses on various factors contributing to Bitcoin’s current narrative and possible outcomes for its future.

At the heart of this analysis is the Realized Cap HODL Waves metric, also known as RHODL waves. Created by Philip Swift, the founder of Look Into Bitcoin, RHODL waves segregate Bitcoin supply into age groups and on-chain compare when this supply last moved.

Swift’s analysis of RHODL waves often indicates an increase in short-term trading specific to bull markets without the widespread FOMO typically seen at these stages. Despite Bitcoin being near 18-month highs and surpassing several key resistance levels, the market has not yet reached the activity frenzy characterizing high points in bull markets.

Furthermore, the increase in the number of smaller wallets, corresponding to a downturn in short-term speculators, further supports this observation.

The Road Ahead for Bitcoin

Onchained, focusing on Bitcoin supply ‘age groups,’ highlights that those increasing their Bitcoin positions as Onchained reached all-time highs in 2021 are still at a loss. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator, providing profitability rates for cohorts of stored coins, is approaching a critical point for those holding Bitcoin for 18 months to 3 years.

These holders will soon reach a breakeven point if Bitcoin’s rally surpasses $39,000. CryptoQuant’s data shows that currently only 11.6% of unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) are at a loss. This statistic generally indicates a profitable situation for most Bitcoin holders despite recent selling activities by whale entities at current price levels.

As Bitcoin approaches the $40,000 level, the community watches with bated breath. Various factors, including the behavior of long-term holders, newcomers to the market, and large-scale investors, will play a crucial role in determining whether Bitcoin can surpass this significant threshold and sustain its high momentum.

Whether Bitcoin will reach the $40,000 level remains uncertain, but indicators suggest that the market may be maturing, and it stands on the verge of another important stage in its ever-evolving narrative.