When Spot Bitcoin ETFs Are Approved, They May Not Bring Significant Capital in the Short Term!

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• Gurbacs was much more optimistic about the long-term impact of ETFs on Bitcoin and pointed to the appreciation of gold prices following the launch of gold ETFs.
• Gurbacs stated that in the eight years following the launch, the price of gold increased fourfold from $400 to $1,800.
• Gurbacs suggested that after the expected approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US, the price of Bitcoin could follow the path of gold, but he added that it would happen ‘much faster.’

Spot Bitcoin ETFs, despite massive expectations, may not see significant capital inflows in the initial period in the US: Expert opinions!

Spot Bitcoin ETFs May Not Meet Short-Term Expectations

According to Gabor Gurbacs, a consultant for VanEck, the impact of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on the market may not be significant in the short term, but they could attract trillions of dollars to the crypto sector in the long run. In a statement made on January 1st, Gurbacs argued that the “initial impact” of a Bitcoin ETF has been largely exaggerated and predicted that the launch might only see a net inflow of about $100 million, mainly from “mostly recycled” funds from major institutional investors.

However, Gurbacs was much more optimistic about the long-term impact of ETFs on Bitcoin and pointed to the appreciation of gold prices following the launch of gold ETFs. On November 18, 2004, State Street, a global investment advisory firm, launched its first gold ETF.

Gurbacs stated that in the eight years following the launch, the price of gold increased fourfold from $400 to $1,800. This substantial appreciation led to the gold market value increasing from $2 trillion to $10 trillion within the same time frame. Today, Bitcoin has a market value of $834 billion, approximately 41% of the market value of gold in 2004.

Gurbacs added that after the expected approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the US, the price of Bitcoin could follow the path of gold, but he added that it would happen ‘much faster’ due to factors such as its limited supply and scarcity-increasing events like halving.

He also emphasized that one of the most significant benefits of a spot Bitcoin ETF is its ability to legitimize and stamp Bitcoin in the eyes of institutional investors and nation-states.

ETF analysts agree with Gurbacs

Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart agreed with Gurbacs. Seyffart noted that many focus on short-term data points such as ETF’s initial day inflows, but they do not fully appreciate the long-term impact of such a product.

According to the latest data, Bitcoin has increased by 1.1% in the last 24 hours, reaching a value of $42,650. There are proponents who expect a significant and long-term increase in the price immediately after approval, as well as those who argue that the approval is a ‘sell the news’ event.