What’s the Latest on Spot BTC ETF Approval Expectations?

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• Trading firm QCP Capital does not anticipate approval for a spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETF from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before 2024.
• The company stated, “Bets on approval of a spot BTC ETF continue, with a series of activities indicating that FOMO is about to begin.”
• The trading firm noted that supportive macroeconomic factors are also part of the positive sentiment around risk assets.

QCP Capital commented on Bitcoin ETF expectations after the recent Bitcoin price rally: Approval for an ETF may not come until 2024!

QCP Doesn’t Expect Bitcoin ETF Approval Before 2024

Trading firm QCP Capital does not anticipate approval for a spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETF from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before 2024. The company’s recent post indicates that expectations surrounding the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs have reached their peak.

The firm added, “Bets on approval of a spot BTC ETF continue, with a series of activities indicating that FOMO is about to begin.” QCP pointed out that recent developments indicate institutions are eager to enter the market, with BTC futures open interest on CME surpassing that of Binance, a clear sign of institutional participation.

Similarly, as perpetual funding rates remain high, futures and risk reversals have steadily risen throughout the week, signaling growing confidence in the potential approval of a spot BTC ETF. However, the firm expects this approval to be delayed until January 2024.

Despite the disappointment about the Bitcoin ETF, QCP suggested that a new narrative could emerge around a spot Ethereum (ETH) ETF, and this could provide enough momentum to drive crypto prices steadily higher until the end of the year.

“A new narrative around a spot ETH ETF should be enough to rekindle crypto prices until the end of the year.”

The trading firm also noted that supportive macroeconomic factors are part of the positive sentiment around risk assets. While U.S. job data consistently reflects a strong economy, recent weak data has presented a different picture.

Especially, the November non-farm payroll (NFP) figure not only fell below expectations but also came in compromise. In the short term, the overall macro outlook seems somewhat more positive, as expectations solidify for a pause in interest rate hikes.

This positive backdrop is expected to provide support to crypto prices, as any market downturn immediately attracts FOMO-focused traders eager to jump on the crypto train. However, QCP cautioned, “But be careful, as we are at critical resistance levels, and BTC is hitting a triple bearish step with RSI signaling a momentum stall.”

ETF expectations fueled a rise to $38,000

The long-anticipated launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF triggered the latest rally in the crypto markets, causing the leading cryptocurrency to rise to $38,000. Meanwhile, analysts at financial services company Cantor Fitzgerald believe that the long-awaited launch of the spot BTC ETF is getting closer to reality.

The SEC has been reluctant to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF due to potential manipulation concerns on offshore spot platforms. However, Cantor Fitzgerald believes that the market surveillance procedures proposed by new applicants could address these concerns and persuade the SEC to approve it.