What is the Probability of Approval for Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US?

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• Attorney John E. Deaton, representing 75,000 XRP holders, responded to valuable investor and advisor Mike Alfred’s prediction of a 98.7% probability of approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF.
• Bloomberg analysts have maintained the probability of spot Bitcoin ETF approval at 90% for more than two months.
• Expectations for approval are high this week as Ark 21Shares, BlackRock, and WisdomTree have updated their S-1 filings to generate cash, meeting the SEC’s request.

While awaiting a decision on spot Bitcoin ETFs from the US, the probability of approval has been a frequent topic of discussion in the crypto community!

Expectations for Bitcoin ETF from XRP Attorney

Attorney John E. Deaton, representing 75,000 XRP holders, responded to valuable investor and advisor Mike Alfred’s prediction of a 98.7% probability of approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF. Other experts also expect a higher probability of spot Bitcoin ETF approval due to BlackRock, Ark 21Shares, and WisdomTree changing their S1 form to include a cash payment model.

XRP supporter attorney John E. Deaton agreed with Mike Alfred’s post on Twitter, saying, “I agree.” Deaton believes in higher probabilities of spot Bitcoin ETF approval due to positive discussions between the SEC and Bitcoin ETF issuers and recent changes in spot Bitcoin ETF applications.

Mike Alfred stated that the probability of spot Bitcoin ETF approval by January 10th is 98.7%. However, there doesn’t seem to be much excitement on Wall Street, where January call options are low for many BTC miners. Bloomberg analysts have maintained the probability of spot Bitcoin ETF approval at 90% for more than two months. As the SEC’s decision on the spot Bitcoin ETF approaches on January 10th, experts point to higher probabilities for approval.

Trader and investor Bob Loukas says, “The SEC’s involvement and the level of advancement/retreat/change in the ETF show that it is 99.9% complete.”

Expectations are high for ETF this week

Expectations for approval are high this week as Ark 21Shares, BlackRock, and WisdomTree have updated their S-1 filings to generate cash, meeting the SEC’s request.

Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart and financial lawyer Scott Johnsson stated, “Not impossible but I think the probability is low. Historically, the SEC has waited until the last day or two to publish the decision; I believe we will see 19b-4 changes to reflect the cash model, and issuers will be in a comment period.” Seyffart also acknowledged the possibility of approval between January 8-10.