This Bitcoin halving signal hints at imminent BTC crash

Bitcoin (BTC) may be nearing a major turning point after a historical halving-cycle signal resurfaced, raising the risk of a sharp market correction.

According to an analysis by TradingShot shared in a TradingView post on May 15, Bitcoin has now completed 760 days since its April 2024 halving event, a timeframe that has historically coincided with major market downturns.

Previous cycles show that once BTC reached the 760-day mark after a halving, the asset experienced an immediate decline that eventually led to a broader bear market phase.

Similar patterns emerged after the 2012, 2016, and 2020 halving cycles, with Bitcoin forming a market top before entering steep corrections shortly after the 760-day signal appeared. 

Those declines later evolved into a “bottom process,” where the market established a long-term base before starting a new bullish cycle.

The analysis also highlighted Bitcoin’s relationship with the 0.618 Fibonacci time level between halving cycles. 

Historically, the 760-day signal has appeared before this key timing level, except in 2014 when it aligned exactly with it. 

For the current cycle, the 0.618 Fibonacci level is projected around October 2026, a period that could coincide with a broader bear market phase and potentially mark Bitcoin’s next major cycle bottom.

The chart pattern further suggests Bitcoin may already be shifting from a topping phase into the early stages of a correction, with a projected curved path pointing to a possible decline before a longer-term recovery begins.

Bitcoin network is showing increased strength 

Interestingly, this outlook comes as Bitcoin’s on-chain activity shows renewed strength, a trend that has historically aligned with the end of local bottoms and the return of stronger market conditions.

Specifically, data from Glassnode’s Vector framework shared on May 15 shows Bitcoin network growth rapidly approaching the key 60 level, a threshold that previously coincided with strong BTC rebounds.

After falling into a “weak activity” phase during the recent correction, the indicator has now turned sharply higher, signaling recovering user participation and transaction demand.

Similar spikes in network growth were seen near the end of bearish phases in 2021, 2022, and 2024, often preceding renewed bullish momentum. A breakout above the 60 level could reinforce the view that Bitcoin is forming a local bottom and preparing for another upward move.

Bitcoin price analysis 

Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency has pulled back from recent highs near $82,000 after a consolidation phase influenced by macroeconomic factors, including bond yields, inflation data, and geopolitical developments.

By press time, Bitcoin was trading at $78,362, up about 0.5% in the past 24 hours. On the weekly chart, the asset remains down over 3%.

Analysts see $80,000–$83,000 as a key resistance zone near the 200-day moving average (MA). A decisive breakout above this level could push Bitcoin toward $85,000–$88,000, while stronger momentum may support a move to $90,000–$100,000 later this year.

On the downside, immediate support lies around $77,500–$78,500, with deeper floors near $75,000 and $71,000–$73,000 if selling pressure intensifies. Despite recent volatility, the broader market structure remains intact as bulls continue defending higher lows.