Some positive price forecasting for Bitcoin

Yesterday, the price of Bitcoin made a new annual high by touching nearly $38,000, confirming some optimistic forecasting.

In contrast, the day before it had even fallen below $36,000, albeit briefly. 

This dynamic confirms Bitcoin’s moment of strength, and seems to confirm some positive forecasts that have been circulating for days now.

The bull run hypothesis: Bitcoin’s price forecasting

The hypothesis that has been discussed for several days now is that in this latter part of 2023 a new big bull run could be triggered, as happened in 2020. 

The fact, however, is that all three big bull runs that have occurred in the past (2013, 2017, and 2021) happened the year after the halving year (2012, 2016, and 2020), while the next halving will happen in April 2024. 

Many in fact expected that the next big bull run in crypto markets could be triggered in late 2024 and go on through 2025. 

However, the BTC price trend in this late part of 2023 does not resemble that of 2019, but that of 2020. 

Comparisons with the past

Looking at the last three months of 2019, one finds that the price of Bitcoin was on a downward trend. 

It must be said that generally at the end of the year the price of Bitcoin either goes up or down, while it very rarely lateralizes. In fact, it often pays either to sell or not to sell for purely fiscal reasons, and not deciding according to the market trend. 

Usually in years when bear-markets occur it pays to sell before the close of the year, and this drives prices down. It is no accident that annual lows during bear-markets often occur in the last quarter. 

Something similar happened in 2019, when the price in October rose from $8,200 to $9,700 but only to fall below $7,000 in November. 

The descent began slowly at the end of October, and continued faster starting on 15 November. In December, the price remained around $7,000, and only recovered in January 2020. 

Instead in late 2020, the price started from $10,400 in October (a level in the normal range for 2020) to rise first to nearly $14,000 at the end of the month, making new annual highs, and then in November even returning close to previous all-time highs above $19,000. 

In other words, it gained 84 percent in two months, with +32% in October and +19% in the first half of November. 

The current situation

Bitcoin’s price started October 2023 at $27,000, which is the current year’s benchmark. 

The month of October closed it at $34,500, that is, making new annual highs. The gain in October was 27%. 

This October 2023 looks much more like the October of 2020 than the October of 2019. 

Moreover, the first 15 days of November this year ended with new annual highs and a gain of 10%, much more like the first half of November 2020 than the first half of November 2019. 

In fact, to be fair, this last quarter of 2023 does not resemble the last quarter of 2019 at all, while instead showing decidedly more signs of resemblance towards the end of 2020. 

Moreover, the current strength of Bitcoin’s price seems really remarkable, so much so that it could justify the hypothesis of a new bullrun, at least in theory. 

Optimistic predictions about the price of Bitcoin

It should therefore come as no surprise that optimistic forecasts are circulating regarding the evolution of Bitcoin’s price in the coming months. 

However, a distinction must be made between the medium and the long term. 

As far as the medium term is concerned, that is ,the evolution until the end of the year, the assumption is that it may manage to exceed even $40,000 by the end of November, and perhaps even approach $45,000 by the end of December. 

Actually in the event that it replicates the 2020 boom it could even return close to all-time highs in December, but right now there are not many who foresee such a scenario. 

After all, what happened in late 2020 was abnormal for a whole host of reasons, and in particular because of the Fed’s mighty QE. 

Right now, not only is there no Fed or ECB QE taking place, but rather there is QT, or a slow withdrawal from the market of the immense amount of liquidity injected in 2020 and 2021. However, there is China that is injecting liquidity, and perhaps that is what is helping the price of BTC to rise. 

In the longer term, however, the assumption is that the new big bullrun, initially predicted by many for 2025, could come as early as 2024. 

The levels to watch out for

These hypotheses, which at present are in fact only hypotheses, need confirmation. Should such confirmations not come, they should be considered incorrect assumptions. 

The first confirmation must come by the end of November, and it consists of the crossing of the $40,000 mark and the consolidation of Bitcoin’s price trend above that threshold. At present this appears to be an entirely plausible hypothesis. 

It should again be stressed that it is not only necessary for the price to touch that figure, but for it to stabilize above that threshold and remain there. 

The second confirmation is expected in December, when an ascent toward $45,000 would be needed. In this case, it is not necessary that the price of Bitcoin actually reach that figure and stabilize above it, but only that it shows clear signs that it can easily reach it. 

In fact, it should not be forgotten that usually when prices at the end of the year go up then at the beginning of the following year they go down, but during a bull run they continue to go up even in January. 

So if the above two confirmations come and then in January the price continues to rise, then the bull run would also be confirmed. 

However, this would not necessarily imply the inflating of a new bubble, that is, the continuation of the bull run. It will be necessary to follow the development day by day.