SEC Continues Meetings with Applicants for Spot Bitcoin ETFs: Will Approval Come Before January?

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• Representatives from investment manager BlackRock met once again with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Tuesday, December 20, 2023.
• Considering the reputation and financial power BlackRock holds in the mainstream financial world, approval from the SEC seems more likely.
• Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart stated that frequent meetings between the SEC and BlackRock have not influenced the timeline for a possible decision.

Investment giants, including BlackRock, continue their discussions with the SEC: Could approval come before January 10?

Investment Giants Continue Meetings with the SEC

Representatives from investment manager BlackRock met once again with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Tuesday, December 20, 2023. This meeting could be one of the final steps the Commission may take for the potential approval of spot Bitcoin ETF applications before January 10, 2024.

Reportedly, BlackRock representatives met with agency officials regarding the approval of the iShares Bitcoin Trust. This marks the company’s third meeting in just one week, occurring just before the window of January 8-10, 2024, when the SEC is expected to approve the first spot Bitcoin ETF.

Considering the reputation and financial power BlackRock holds in the mainstream financial world, approval from the SEC seems more likely. However, analysts caution about the possibility of another delay in the decision-making process before January 10.

Is the Probability of Approval Before January 10 Low?

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart stated that frequent meetings between the SEC and BlackRock have not influenced the timeline for a possible decision. Seyffart argues that the agency might give approval to all applicants simultaneously or at least in a few batches so that a single company does not gain a first-mover advantage. He said:

“In my view, it doesn’t change the dates. We are still watching the January 8-10 window. (Yes, technically some applicants could get approval before this – I just think the probability is low.)”

However, Michael Saylor, the founder of MicroStrategy, expresses confidence that the approval of a spot ETF in January could mean a demand shock for Bitcoin. According to him, the approval could be the biggest market event in the last 30 years. Meanwhile, entrepreneur Mike Alfred predicts a 98.7% probability of Bitcoin ETF approval before January 10. Whether Bitcoin’s price will exhibit increased volatility until the final date remains to be seen.

Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, believes that ETF approval will come before January 10. Novogratz mentioned that trading of Bitcoin ETFs could start 6-8 weeks after SEC approval.