Largest quantum attack on Bitcoin’s elliptic curve cryptography to date

Researcher Giancarlo Lelli derived a 15-bit ECC private key from a public key using publicly accessible quantum hardware, with the Polymarket odds for another $100M+ crypto hack by December 31 sitting at 100% YES.

Lelli’s result scales up from a 6-bit demo just last year. With 6.9 million BTC held in addresses whose public keys are exposed, the crypto hack market has reached 100% YES with 251 days left until resolution.

The quantum vulnerability could weigh on Bitcoin’s price. The Bitcoin price in April market reflects the possibility of a dip below $60,000 if a panic sell-off materializes. With the end of April only days away, traders are pricing in the new quantum threat against Bitcoin’s existing stability.

Trading volumes on these contracts remain at zero, which means traders may be waiting for confirmation or further developments before committing capital. The thin liquidity also means any large orders could shift the odds quickly.

Lelli’s breakthrough is a theoretical risk, not a practical exploit. Real Bitcoin keys use 256-bit ECC, orders of magnitude beyond what current quantum hardware can attack. At 100% YES, betting on another $100M+ hack offers no upside unless you think the market has overreacted. On the Bitcoin price side, buying YES at 25¢ would pay $1 if Bitcoin dips, a 4x return, but only if the dip happens within six days.

Watch for blockchain security reports, unusual large transactions on major exchanges, and any public statements from figures like Larry Fink or Cathie Wood, whose reactions could move sentiment.

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