Is Bitcoin halfway through its Pre-Halving Rally phase?

Roughly 35 days remain until the fourth Bitcoin halving takes place. The crypto market has been on a rollercoaster ride for the past several months.

The accumulated anticipation of the halving merger with the US Bitcoin Spot ETF approval has helped BTC hit its ATH. The price of Bitcoin is currently comfortably trading above $72,000, with a 49% growth in the past month alone.

Experts expect the halving to push the price of Bitcoin even higher. But has the halving rally already started? Based on historical data, Bitcoin tends to have a pre-halving rally around 60 days before the halving.

This pattern was repeated this time, but it was much more grand this time. Bitcoin has already hit its all-time high, with over a month remaining until the halving. After the pre-halving rally wraps up, it will be time for the pre-halving retrace.

It has been noted that halving experiences a “buy the hype” session before the “sell the news” period. Short-term investors “buy the hype” weeks before the halving to make a profit from the hype-centric ally. 

Once the halving takes place, they “sell the news” to realize the profit. This tendency contributes to the pre-halving retrace that happens weeks before the halving. Back in 2016, this retrace was -38% deep, while it was -20% deep in 2020.

The retrace can go on for weeks or up to 77 days. In 2024, BTC experienced a -14% pullback in March and a -18% pullback in January. Thus, if a pre-halving retrace does occur, it is expected to be a shallower one.

Following the retrace, a re-accumulation period can last up to 5 months. This stage is faced by investors’ disappointment, impatience, and boredom without any major fluctuations. However, the cycle can result in establishing an all-time high range. 

After BTC breaches past the re-accumulation area breakout, it enters the parabolic uptrend. During this phase, it witnesses accelerated growth, and this phase can last for more than a year.