Fed Decision Looms: What’s Next for Bitcoin?

Bitcoin traders eye the May FOMC meeting as Powell’s final presser sparks debate over crypto’s next move. Here’s what analysts say.

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve this week.

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to hold its benchmark interest rate steady, and markets have priced in a 100% chance of no change. 

Yet Bitcoin traders are watching closely. The real question is not the rate decision itself. It is what Jerome Powell says at the press conference that could shake the market.

Related reading: 

Fed Power Clash Ends: Tillis Signals Green Light for Warsh

Bitcoin’s History With FOMC Meetings

Crypto analyst Crypto Bully broke down the pattern on X. 

According to the trader, BTC has shown sensitivity around the first-quarter FOMC meetings. These meetings tend to shape yearly expectations for monetary policy. 

Going into the January meeting, Bitcoin traded in a risk-on environment, though caution lingered over how aggressive the Fed would be in 2026. The March meeting saw BTC at range highs before pulling back and grinding higher again.

Crypto Bully noted that the FOMC result itself does not move markets. The statements made during Powell’s press conference do. With BTC already trending upward heading into this meeting, the analyst outlined two likely scenarios. 

Taking a look at FOMC and how price moves heading into and post the event 🧵

If you’re a new trader with no plan, use this as a foundation:

— Crypto Bully 🔥 (@BullyDCrypto) April 29, 2026

A neutral or dovish tone could support continued upside. A higher-for-longer signal could trigger a sell-the-news reaction, similar to what played out at previous meetings this year.

What Analysts Are Saying About Powell’s Final Meeting

CNBC reported that this could be Jerome Powell’s final meeting as Fed chair. The Senate Banking Committee is expected to approve Kevin Warsh’s nomination. 

Economist Mohamed El-Erian echoed that sentiment on social media. He described the press conference as the most interesting aspect of today’s meeting. 

El-Erian raised questions about whether Powell would repeat the defiant tone seen at his January appearance.

The most interesting aspect of today’s Federal Reserve (FOMC) meeting—where interest rates will be left as is—will be the Chair’s press conference.
This is likely Jerome Powell’s final meeting as Chair, given that the Senate Banking Committee is expected to approve Kevin Warsh’s…

— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) April 29, 2026

On policy outlook, economist Roger Ferguson told CNBC the Fed would likely signal stability in the labor market. He added that sticky inflation near 3% leaves more work to be done. 

Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle, as cited by CNBC, expects the post-meeting statement to acknowledge better labor data and higher inflation numbers without changing policy guidance. 

Mericle also expects only one dissent, consistent with the March meeting.

Post-FOMC Price Action Raises Concern for Bulls

Crypto analyst Ardi brought a bearish data point to the conversation. He noted on social media that BTC sold off in the week following eight of the last nine FOMC meetings. 

The average drop across those periods was 11% within seven days post-meeting. At current levels, Ardi said that would place BTC near the $70K region if the pattern repeats. 

He acknowledged that bulls may resist a sharp structural breakdown given the recent bullish environment. Still, he warned that optimistic positioning built up during the rally often gets sold into around these events.