Cryptoquant: BTC Dominance to Persist Until ETH Spot Demand Catches Up

Key Takeaways:

• Cryptoquant analysts find that BTC and ETH have exhibited markedly diverging supply-demand structures throughout April 2026.
• Bitcoin dominance is likely to persist until ether shows sustained spot buying.
• If ETH mirrors BTC’s spot demand pattern, a broader altcoin rally could follow.

What the Divergence Looks Like Onchain

Bitcoin crossed $81,000 on Tuesday, but ether did not follow with the same conviction. Cryptoquant’s central finding was that bitcoin and ether are operating in different demand regimes, and until the latter shows the kind of sustained spot buying that BTC has attracted, bitcoin dominance (the metric tracking BTC’s share of total crypto market capitalization) is likely to hold its ground.

Bitcoin’s April recovery was driven by spot demand, with real buyers purchasing and holding BTC rather than leveraged positions in the futures market. The data behind that demand is concrete as U.S. bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $532 million in net inflows on May 4 alone, their third consecutive day of positive flows.

Consequently, April’s total spot BTC ETF net inflows reached $2.44 billion, the strongest monthly institutional buying figure in nearly eight months.

Ether’s situation looks different, given U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs did log $61.29 million in net inflows on May 4 (a positive data point), but the scale and consistency of ETH’s institutional flows have not matched bitcoin’s trajectory.

Why Spot Demand Beats Leveraged Demand

The distinction between spot and leveraged demand matters for price stability in ways that are easy to underestimate. When buyers accumulate bitcoin through spot ETFs or direct purchases, they withdraw supply from exchanges, a structural tailwind that sustains price even during periods of low trading volume.

When demand comes primarily through futures and perpetuals, it creates short-term price pressure without reducing the underlying supply available for sale. Leveraged positions unwind fast when conditions shift, as the market was reminded on Tuesday when a trader closed a 700 BTC short position at a $1.94 million loss as BTC pushed through $81,000.

For anyone tracking whether 2026 delivers a broad crypto market expansion, the Cryptoquant roadmap is specific: monitor U.S. Ethereum spot ETF flow data, watch exchange supply levels for ETH, and track whether ether’s discount to its own all-time highs begins closing faster than bitcoin’s.